Donald Trump returned to the White House in January with the stated objective of bending China to his will. Before completing two weeks in power, he increased customs duties on Chinese products from 10% to 20%. “It was just a warning shot. If we don’t reach an agreement with China, the tariffs will be very, very substantial,” he said at the time. In the following months, the prediction came true. In the first tariff strike in April, China was hit with the largest surcharges and then began to fight back. The succession of American responses has meant that customs duties imposed on Chinese products have reached an incredible 145%. In May, with the first ceasefire in the trade war, that rate fell to 30%. Today it is 20%. It seems clear that in Trump’s first year, China’s Xi Jinping had the upper hand.
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Earlier this month, Trump authorized Nvidia to begin selling its second-most advanced chip for artificial intelligence (AI) to the Chinese, a move considered out of the question until recently. The United States and China are competing in the AI race, with the potential to catapult economic and military gains. Selling cutting-edge chips to his opponent seemed unthinkable because it went against the national interest. No more. By giving in, Trump drew criticism from the opposition and the Republican Party itself. The justification that the US government would keep part of the profits from sales convinced no one.
This was not the only American concession. In November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told parliament that an armed attack by China on Taiwan could justify sending troops to the region. Since then, China has responded with pressure on Takaichi, sending bombers to fly over the vicinity of the Japanese islands. From the White House, not a single word has been heard in defense of Asia’s greatest ally. In diplomatic circles, attention has been drawn to the White House’s release of the National Security Strategy, listing America’s geopolitical priorities. Instead of Asia, as under previous governments, the Americas now come first.
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At least momentarily, the Chinese managed to contain the American onslaught by threatening to restrict the supply of essential raw materials. China dominates the market for rare earths, a group of 17 chemical elements used in cutting-edge technological sectors, including defense equipment such as fighters, missiles or radars. It controls around 70% of global mining and an impressive 90% of processing and refining. It is also dominant in chains of other minerals. The U.S. military relies on Chinese supplies for access to approximately 6,000 batteries and weapons components.
In 2025, Xi demonstrated his willingness to use economic power as a weapon of pressure. The certainty that China poses the greatest strategic threat to American power has not disappeared in Washington. This remains one of the rare points of convergence between Democrats and Republicans. However, Trump erred by bluffing that he would go to the ultimate consequences and was forced to backtrack. American strength in science, economics, and on the battlefield remains unwavering, but in 2025, Xi emerged victorious. It may be a circumstantial victory, but Trump can no longer stand in the way.
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