The continued rise of Earth’s energy imbalance raises questions about the factors driving the electricity global warming.
This parameter, which measures the difference between the solar energy that the planet absorbs and that it returns to space, is consolidated as a Key indicator the evolution of the climate and the rate at which heat accumulates.
Traditionally, some work by scientists has focused on the role they played Aerosols, Suspended particles that come from sources both natural and humanin changing this energy balance.
A study published in the journal Scientific advancescarried out by researchers from the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science des University of Miamianalyzed two decades Satellite observations And atmospheric data to determine the actual influence of aerosols on the recent trend of global energy imbalance.
The work contributes to this new evidence about the actual extent of the influence of these compounds on the warming of the planet.
According to the study, the country Over the past two decades, the country has seen a steady increase in its energy imbalance. This means the planet is absorbing more energy than it frees up space, especially because more sunshineand not because there is a significant reduction in the quantity heat that the planet radiates.
Data shows the planet accreted between 2003 and 2023 0.51 watts per square meter more per decadea value that represents the difference between the incoming and the outgoing energy.
This is mainly because the earth absorbs more Sunlightwhile the thermal radiation that the planet returns to space has hardly changed.
“He Earth’s energy imbalance It tells us how quickly heat builds up in the climate system. Many previous studies have suggested that cleaner air could explain much of the recent increase, but our results show that changes in aerosols are largely balanced between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. This means we need to take a closer look Changes in the clouds and the natural climate variability to understand why the planet continues to warm,” he explained. Brian SodenCo-author of the study and professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the Rosenstiel School, in an official statement.
The work describes that the AerosolsThese are tiny particles that float in the air and can arise from both human activities and natural processes Earth’s energy balanceas they can change the quantity sunshine that is reflected and Cloud formation. The more of these particles there are in the atmosphere, the more Sunlight is reflected into space and less energy is trapped. However, research concludes that the impact on the surge has increased in recent years global energy imbalance It was practically zero.
This conclusion is based on the analysis of two types of measurements: a Aerosol index obtained from satellites, which measures the amount and size of particles in the atmosphere, and that Sulfate concentrationcalculated from atmospheric models that combine information from observations and simulations.
According to the results of the study, both methods showed the same pattern: a Decrease in aerosols in the northern hemisphere and Increase in the southern hemisphereThis suggests that overall they had little impact on the recent energy trend. That is, although there has been a decline in the north environmentally harmful particles (largely due to laws that improved air quality in industrial areas), the opposite happened in the southern hemisphere.
Natural events such as: Australian bushfires 2019 and 2020 and the Eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcano in 2022 large amounts of aerosols released into the atmosphere. This balanced the overall effect.
The article points out that the results of the Climate modelswhich sometimes give it greater weight Aerosol reduction in the Northern Hemisphere may overestimate their impact because they do not sufficiently take into account the increase in aerosols natural origin in the southern hemisphere. This conclusion is convincing because the study used two different methods to measure aerosols (a index received via satellite and Sulfate concentration in the atmosphere) and both methods agreed on the results.
The authors emphasize this understanding “hemispheric compensation” allows us to draw attention to the true drivers of the global warming: The Changes in cloud behavior and the natural climate variability. This is laid out in the article, where they claim that the evidence gathered “indicates that both aerosol radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions have made insignificant contributions to Earth’s energy imbalance trends.”
“Understanding this hemispheric ‘balancing act’ helps society focus on the true forces behind global warming (changes in cloud behavior related to surface warming and natural climate fluctuations) rather than falsely attributing recent warming to one person.” cleaner air” he hinted Chanyoung ParkLead author of the study and graduate student in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the Rosenstiel School.
And he added: “While the northern hemisphere could experience some of this regional warming Due to the reduction in aerosols, this does not result in any significant overall pollution. This clarity promotes better things Climate planningA public communication more accurate and informed policy decisions.”
The research highlights that reducing aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere may lead to some impacts regional warmingHowever, this does not mean a significant impact on a planetary scale. According to the authors, the clarity of these results has implications public communication and the Climate policy planning.
The study concludes that the recent increase Earth energy imbalance is explained to a greater extent by the Reducing cloud reflectivity and the stronger absorption of solar radiationmore than due to the effect of aerosols. In addition, there is a warning about the necessity Climate models include more precisely the Natural aerosol sources and be variabilityto avoid overestimating the role of Air pollution in the development of global warming.
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