The food inflation that led the index to stay within the target range in 2025 will not have the same effect next year. This figure contradicts all initial forecasts, of household food inflation of 1.9% this year according to the IBGE overview, and is one of the main reasons why the year ended much better than expected and than expected by economists. There was even a strong deflation in the cereals, pulses and oilseeds group, which is expected to reach an incredible -23.5%, driven by rice. In 2026, food prices in general are not expected to spike, but there is expected to be an increase of almost 5%.
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According to calculations by economist Fábio Romão (senior economist of consultancy 4Intelligence), food inflation could reach 4.8% next year. The greatest pressure will come from meat, which stood at 2.8% in 2025 and is expected to accelerate to 6.9% next year. The first reason is the resumption of exports, the second is the livestock cycle which alternates years of greater supply with other years of lower slaughter. In each subgroup, the calm of this year is expected to give way to some pressure.
The year will be political, due to the general election, and food is the most visible part of inflation. This is what weighs the most on the budgets of the poorest. Fresh products, on the rise, are expected to experience a drop of 0.8%, but next year they could reach 6.7%. This sub-item is actually the most volatile, a season of unfavorable weather directly affects prices, but rain and sunshine at the right time can also reverse the bad outcome. Regardless, what we know today is that the situation will not be as benign as next year. And going up, it will easily be ammunition for opposition candidates. The likely increase is lower than the average household inflation of the last decade (7.4%) and is far from the 13.2% recorded in 2022, during the presidential election.
If the economist’s forecast is confirmed, bread should increase by 5.6%, with the group of flours, starches and pasta increasing by 8.6%. It forecasts a 10% increase in the prices of oilseeds, pulses and cereals. The increase in supply in this region and external competition caused these prices to fall in 2025, which ended up discouraging investments and making a drop in supply, and therefore an increase in prices, predictable.
In short, next year will be normal, not a shortage year that will lead to large increases as happened years ago, but the surprisingly benign year of 2025 will not be repeated, where even what seemed like bad news ended up being reversed in favor of lower prices. One of these factors was tariffs which meant that some food exports had to be redirected to the domestic market in an environment of sudden decline in external demand. Food is the group most exposed to volatility.
On the other hand, coffee, which has seen strong increases in recent years, should benefit from a greater supply. All signs point to better harvests in producing countries. This led the industry to lobby the government to remove coffee from the U.S. super fare list, a goal that was ultimately achieved.
Due to the nature of an election year, high dollar volatility is expected next year, and this impacts all products. The exchange rate was another reason for the improvement in the inflation situation in 2025. It started the year above R$6 with forecasts that it would continue to rise and fall sharply for almost the entire year. It is still much lower than January, but December was a taste of what could happen in 2026. As soon as the pre-election environment emerged, the dollar began to fluctuate more sharply.
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