Always with a triumphant expression and recently with an additional electoral touch, Minister Luis Caputo has recently declared and exaggerated: “A year of strong reactivation is just around the corner. We are changing a model that represented a vicious circle and we have already started the most difficult part: grow between 4 and 8% by 2026.”
The figures released by INDEC almost simultaneously put things in a much less pretentious position for now. The data from the Monthly Estimator (EMAE), an approximation of GDP, does not speak of such a strong reactivation as Caputo imagines, but specifically of one a recovery of 3.2% in October 2025 compared to October 2024 and a slight decrease of 0.4% when the reference is September.
It’s now clear that this story is all about numbers. And not exactly encouraging ones, no matter how you look at them. Those of this year that end and can end in red are preceded by two GDP supervision; one of 1.6% in 2023 and another of 1.3% next year 2024. Obvious 4% in 2026 would not come close to offsetting the semi-annual decline.
The sequence says that the libertarian government started in a recession, continued in a recession, and probably added a year 2025 that will end below zero. Basically shared responsibilities. And then impacts on the labor market, incomes and production chains, without any plan aimed at getting around them: they are loose, outside any trace of official regulation.
Industrial activity has already been mentioned in this package of reports, with a decline of 2.7% in October 2025, capping a series in which 11 of the 12 months of 2024 appear painted red and in which the majority of production indicators were exactly below those of October 22, 23 and 24.
Something similar is happening in the construction industry: a slight recovery on October 25 hides a chain of negative records that extends throughout 2024; in some months with falls of more than 20%.
The collapse of two productive activities with a strong impact on employment is predictable and well known and leads to layoffs. If we include workers in wholesale and retail trade, another major employer, the decline in registered employment on August 25 compared to August 23 affected 48,432 workers, according to a survey by the UIA Study Center (CEU) based on statistics from the Ministry of Labor.
Expanded to the entire private sector, the figure stands at 183,455 layoffs. It is worth noting that unregistered employment amounts to black employment without pension contributions, health or workers’ compensation insurance, nor entitlement to paid leave or severance pay. Similar to the worst of all worlds.
Two pieces of information of a similar nature also contribute to a combination that is difficult to digest. A study shows that the income of so-called informal workers remained 34 percentage points below November 2017 levels, compared to 19.4 percentage points lost among formal workers.
The second piece of information warns of a certainly foreseeable decline in consumption that has started since May-June. That is, expenses and claims that are postponed due to the income shortfalls and debts that are pressing and despite the announced decline in inflation. The county is progressing, with investment declines ranging from 17% in industry to 24% in construction, leading to government recovery announcements.
The ending ends with a reactivation in a dropper and with new proclamations of Mileista optimism. José Luis Daza, Luis Caputo’s deputy, said these days: “2026 will be the best year for the economy in decades. And not only because it will be growth with balanced macroeconomic accounts, which will make it sustainable…”
Productive activity and employment are now set for their best year in decades as constant adjustment continues to dictate.
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