Just as happened in 2014, when current Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) ran for re-election to the São Paulo government, a possible water crisis in São Paulo could put strain on the 2026 electoral campaign, when Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) will eventually seek re-election as head of the Palácio dos Bandeirantes.
As shown in MetropolisesThe Cantareira system, the main source of supply for the metropolitan region, starts this summer with 28% less water compared to the same period of 2013, the day before the water crisis that devastated Greater São Paulo starting in 2014, leading the reservoir to a dead volume and Sabesp to adopt a rotation in the water supply.
It is also the worst start to the rainy season since 2015, when the dams were still recovering from a severe drought. The amount of water entering the system in December is well below forecast for this time of year: 21.12 m³/s today, compared to the historical average of 50.3 m³/s for the month, or only 42% of what was predicted.
Warning on consumption and risk of rotation
Given this scenario, as shown in Metropolises This Saturday (27/12), the Tarcísio government does not rule out adopting a rotation in the water supply next year, as happened in 2015, after the re-election of Alckmin, if the rains forecast between January and March are insufficient to recover São Paulo’s water sources.
Last Thursday (25/12), the government of São Paulo issued a statement alerting the population to an “immediate reduction” in water consumption, in a context of increasing spending by 60% in the face of last week’s heatwave, which directly affects the level of water sources.
According to state leadership, the growth in consumption is occurring at a time when the state is experiencing one of the lowest precipitation rates in recent years, causing prolonged drought and affecting the capacity of dams that supply the metro area.
“It is for this reason that the Government of São Paulo asks the population to use water consciously, taking faster showers and avoiding waste and use for non-essential purposes, such as filling swimming pools or washing sidewalks and cars. Water use should be prioritized for food and personal hygiene. The collaboration of the population is essential to guarantee a regular supply,” says the government.
The Tarcísio administration announced that, since August, it has decided to reduce nighttime water pressure in the São Paulo metropolitan region in order to preserve water sources due to lack of rain. According to the government, the water management measures guarantee water savings equivalent to more than 1.2 million 500 liter water tanks per day, or 50.4 thousand per hour.
Still according to the Palácio dos Bandeirantes, the supply systems are monitored by Sabesp, which carries out operational maneuvers to preserve the balance of distribution. As a preventative measure, the government states that the company has strengthened its supply, notably with the support of tankers in certain regions.
“The conscious use of water must be part of the routine of families, especially in this period of serious shortage, bearing in mind that the action of each person has an impact on preserving the level of the dams responsible for supplying the metropolitan region of São Paulo,” said the Secretary of Environment, Infrastructure and Logistics, Natalia Resende.
Alckmin and the 2014 water crisis
Although Geraldo Alckmin won in the first round in 2014, the shortage of water in the reservoirs and the need to adopt rationing was one of the main sources of attrition in the management of the then governor of Tucano in the re-election campaign.
In this conflict, the current Vice President of the Republic has adopted a position of denial of the existence of official water rationing in the State, even though the Cantareira system is operating at critical levels and breaking negative records.
The then re-election candidate claimed that the measures adopted at the time, such as the savings bonus and the use of the “technical reserve” of reservoirs, would be sufficient to guarantee supply.
To face this scenario without admitting rationing, the government used technical and discursive strategies, such as reducing pressure in pipes, which left entire neighborhoods, especially the highest and most remote ones, with dry taps for several hours of the day.
In one of the campaign’s most notable moments, during a televised debate in September 2014, he emphatically declared that “there is no water shortage” and “there will be no water shortage” in the state. In early 2015, however, after being re-elected, Alckmin acknowledged for the first time that the state was already experiencing, in practice, informal rationing, with reduced water pressure.
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