Mega da Virada’s estimated prize of around 1 billion reais, the largest ever offered in the history of the lottery, can generate a monthly income of several million reais if invested in conservative fixed-income investments, according to calculations by financial planner Ivan Vianna, CFP certified by Planejar.
The simulations consider a projected Selic rate scenario of around 12% per year until the end of 2026, in line with financial market expectations, and indicate that the full application of the premium on assets such as Treasury Selic and CDBs would allow the winner to obtain a high monthly income without compromising core equity.
Mega da Virada is a special competition organized on December 31 and is not cumulative. If no one correctly guesses the six numbers in the main row, the prize is redistributed between those who guess correctly in Quina and, successively, in Quadra, according to the rules of the Caixa Econômica Federal.
In the simulations, Vianna adopted a monthly return of 0.5% for savings, or approximately 6.17% per year. For applications linked to the base interest rate, such as the Selic Treasury and CDBs which pay 100% of the CDI, a rate of 12% per year (gross) was considered.
In the case of CDBs from medium-sized banks, the calculation was based on a remuneration of 110% of the CDI, which corresponds to approximately 11.8% per year (gross). For FIIs (real estate funds), the estimate envisaged an average return of 0.8% per month.
According to Vianna, the income presented is net and deducted from the regressive IR (income tax) in the case of Trésor Selic and CDB. Savings and FIIs were considered exempt from income tax for individuals. The projections are also based on the assumption that there are no withdrawals or new contributions, thus maintaining the amount invested in full throughout the analyzed period.
According to Diogo Carvalho, InvestSmart XP’s fixed income sales and open-ended funds, even with the prospect of a decline in the Selic – currently 15% per year – in the coming years, conservative investments continue to be capable of generating high income. However, he specifies that the fall in interest rates tends to reduce the profitability of assets linked to the CDI, which requires a more diversified allocation strategy.
In this context, Carvalho argues that the most appropriate path is to combine different asset classes to seek returns above the base interest rate. For 2026, he says analysts see a more favorable macroeconomic scenario for variable income, as falling fixed-income yields tend to shift some investment toward riskier assets, such as stocks and real estate funds.
In the case of real estate funds, Carvalho says that in addition to the potential for stock appreciation, there is the difference of generating monthly income exempt from income tax for individuals. He also cites the Treasury IPCA+ as a relevant alternative for next year, as it offers protection against inflation in an environment of greater fiscal uncertainty, particularly in an election year, when public spending tends to increase and market volatility to be greater.
“Another central point is international diversification for the allocation of the premium. Having part of the resources abroad reduces exposure to Brazilian risk, protects assets against exchange rate fluctuations and broadens access to different markets, sectors and currencies.”
CAN I LIVE ONLY ON THE PRICE INCOME?
According to Ivan Vianna, it is possible to live on the income generated by the prize without having to touch the principal amount. It is recommended to make monthly withdrawals of between 0.5% and 0.7% of the amount invested, which would equate to an income of approximately R$5-7 million per month.
The expert claims that this withdrawal model allows assets to be preserved in the long term, maintaining purchasing power even in the face of inflation and natural fluctuations in economic cycles, in addition to comfortably covering an extremely high standard of living.
“If the investor allocates a minority share of stocks to higher risk assets — such as stocks, multi-market funds or other more sophisticated financial instruments — there is, in the long term, the possibility of achieving returns higher than the conservative scenarios presented,” he says.
According to him, this additional potential is associated with expectations of economic growth, the evolution of listed companies and the investor’s ability to withstand volatility, understand the risks involved and adopt a well-structured diversification strategy. This analysis should be carried out by qualified professionals, such as personal financial planners and investment managers, taking into account the risk profile of the investor.
WHAT CAN YOU DO TO REDUCE THE RISK OF LOSS?
To reduce the risk of losses, especially in the first years after receiving the award, which are considered the most critical, Vianna says it is essential to adopt asset protection and financial planning measures from the start. According to him, this involves evaluating the creation of adequate legal structures, separating resources intended for consumption from the main assets and avoiding making very important financial decisions during the first months.
The expert also claims that lack of financial education, pressure from family and friends, spending without criteria and poorly understood investments explain why some lottery winners lose their money in a short time.
The prior definition of an income strategy and the support of specialized and independent advice therefore help to reduce impulsive decisions and preserve assets in the long term.
Vianna also says that great fortunes require a different financial logic than most people. According to him, the emphasis is no longer placed on the search for higher returns but on the preservation of wealth, the organization of financial life, the generation of predictable income and succession planning. “A large, poorly organized fortune destroys your freedom; well organized, it guarantees tranquility for generations,” he says.
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