The case of Villamanín It’s a lesson in economics. There, 450 shares of the number assigned to El Gordo were sold, but 50 were not guaranteed by their corresponding tenths. They say it was a mistake and it seems much of the town believes it. … Half of Spain is looking for emotional reasons to sell shares without control. When he’s not playing, it’s a piece of cake. The problem is when it hits: then the wrongdoing or negligence is revealed, because the system is based on trust. You issue a paper that promises future conversion into money if there is a price. When the time comes, you find out whether the promise was solid or not.
This dynamic, so common in our Christmasexposes two mechanisms. The first is behavioral: while money is only a possibility, we act with detachment and allow ourselves to be seduced by causes to which we would not give a larger sum. But when the price becomes concrete, the moral scale shifts: what was once sympathy is now justified. The promise gains weight and the lack of support becomes a grievance.
The second mechanism is inflation caused by monetary policy. In Villamanín, the difference between what is issued (stakes) and what is backed (real tenths) suddenly reveals itself thanks to chance and requires adjusting the value of winning bets. In the economy, the difference between the money in circulation and the real value it can buy manifests itself with a certain delay.
It is no coincidence that both phenomena live in the shadows while the extraordinary – that it touches your Fat or what Poutine invade Ukraine – that’s not happening. Thousands of associations issue shares without control in Spain, i.e. a bona fide underground economy; Likewise, hundreds of government spending decisions are financed by relying on inflation to do the dirty work. In one case, no one checks whether all the ballots have been recorded. In the other, no one wants to talk out loud about how persistent inflation softens fiscal austerity, increases tax collection and liquefies debts.
The most disturbing thing about the Villamanín affair is not the event, but what it reveals: how unprepared we are to collectively manage conflict when the dissonance between what has been agreed and what is real breaks out. We depend on social pressure, empathy or scandal. There is no shortage of rules, there is a lack of good standards that prevent abuse without disabling trust.
Before, the government could be accused of printing bank notes. Today, monetary policy is independent, it is determined by the European Central Bank, but it is conditioned by financial stability, public debt and the priorities of governments which do not contribute to stopping inflation because they discover that the budgetary margins are wider when prices increase. Bad faith is not necessary: it is enough to understand the inducement. In Villamanín, the hole was seen one night. In the economy, we see it late. But it still happens. jmuller@abc.es
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