Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and United States President Donald Trump will hold a meeting this Monday, much of which depends on what happens in 2026 in the Middle East. This is already their fifth meeting in the United States in just one year, the one Trump returns to the White House. And, like the previous ones, it arrives surrounded by expectations: because of the unpredictability of the US president (who went from advocating the ethnic cleansing of Gaza to imposing a ceasefire agreement that, at least on paper, prohibits it) and because of the influence on millions of lives of the decisions they make behind closed doors. On this occasion and according to leaks, Netanyahu left this Sunday for Florida with the objective of bringing back four green lights by 2026: to be able to bomb Iran again if it does not stop developing missiles; keep it status quo in Gaza (of which Israeli troops control more than half and launch attacks that kill an average of five Palestinians per day), impose the disarmament of the weakened Hezbollah throughout Lebanon and remain in the area of Syria that it has occupied militarily since last year.
In short, the freedom to – instead of closing the fronts – keep them open as much as possible, taking advantage of their overwhelming military superiority. Today, Israel imposes its law on the Middle East like never before in decades. Since the Hamas attack in October 2023, Hamas has occupied territories in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, and bombed Gulf countries such as Yemen and Qatar for the first time.
This is, in essence, what they will debate this Monday at 3:30 p.m. local time (9:30 p.m. mainland Spain) at Trump’s famous Mar-a-Lago mansion in Palm Beach, Florida. Exceptionally, Netanyahu left Tel Aviv airport on Sunday without journalists following his activity or making statements. And with a brief list of principles, because his interlocutor lacks the attention and patience necessary to listen to the details of each of the situations in the region, the newspaper’s military correspondent stressed this Sunday. Yediot Aharonot, Ron Ben Yishai.
A priori, the coincidences concerning Hezbollah are broad. The United States supports and holds the key to tightening the financing spigot of a crumbling state to force it to fully implement disarmament (it has already done so virtually south of the Litani River), even at the risk of triggering a new civil war.
Interests clash more around Iran and Gaza. Last June, Trump not only blessed the unprecedented Israeli attack, which generated a 12-day war, but also surprised by putting aside his previous isolationist rhetoric and launching the United States into its first direct attack on Iran. It was at three nuclear bases, with a devastating bomb that Israel was missing.
The objective then was the nuclear program. Today, Netanyahu wants to attack the ballistic missiles that Tehran is developing, and Trump’s agreement to military action is less clear. The initiative, a violation of international law, shows the imbalance that Israel has increased over these two years compared to its regional competitor, weakened, sanctioned, isolated and with growing internal problems. There is galloping inflation and a currency in free fall.
Its president, Masoud Pezeshkian, assured this Saturday that Tehran was in “total war” with the United States, Israel and Europe, who “surround it on all sides: economic, cultural, political and security” and are implementing a plan aimed at overthrowing the ayatollahs’ regime in 36 months maximum. Aware of citizen unrest, he called for “internal unity”. “If we maintain it, they will be disappointed and will reconsider any attack on our country. They are counting on internal events to intervene,” he said, referring to an uprising taking advantage of possible bombings.
Gaza will also have a strong presence at the Mar-a-Lago meeting. Trump aims to announce next month the start of the second phase of the ceasefire he concluded. This implies a new Israeli military withdrawal, the creation of a technocratic Palestinian government, the entry on the scene of an international control body and the deployment of an international force whose combat rules remain to be defined and for which volunteers are fewer and fewer in number.
Netanyahu’s government wants, on the contrary, to remain in the first phase, in which almost all Gazans are struggling (their tents were flooded again this Sunday due to heavy rains) in almost half of Gaza controlled by Hamas. The rubble of the remaining 58% is in the hands of Israel, which intends to begin reconstruction there, although it is almost deserted. The so-called yellow line separates them.
The army also continues to fail to meet the agreed minimum for the entry of humanitarian aid and the reopening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. At the beginning of the month he said it would arrive in the following days, but that didn’t happen. Also that it would only be for departures (the Israeli right dreams of depopulating Palestine), despite the fact that the ceasefire agreement emphasizes that it will reopen “in both directions” and that any Gazans who leave will be able to return.
Israel says it has not yet received the body of the last of the nearly 250 hostages that Palestinian militias took during their attack in October 2023. In fact, their relatives are accompanying Netanyahu to remove Trump, according to local press. Finding his remains in a devastated Gaza Strip could take a few days, or even a long time. ad eternal. Already in October, Israeli intelligence services admitted that between two and four of the dead hostages would probably never be found.
According to Israeli TV Channel 12, Trump’s entourage is increasingly frustrated by Netanyahu’s obstacles. “All he has left is the president, who still loves him, but even he wants the deal to move forward faster than today,” a White House source told the channel.
The fear is that once again Netanyahu has signed a deal only to secure his first returns (the return of the last 20 living hostages) and then maintain what in Israeli military jargon is called “freedom of action.” That is to say, continuing the daily bombings in Lebanon and Gaza, despite the ceasefires, under the pretext that Hamas and Hezbollah are trying to reorganize.
The question now is “whether Trump will be able to direct his policy on the ground in the direction of lasting peace,” Uriel Abulof, associate professor of political science at Tel Aviv University and visiting fellow at Cornell University (United States), said by telephone. He calls this “a worst-case scenario for Netanyahu” because it inevitably involves “the installation of some kind of substantial political body in place of Hamas, which will obviously have to involve – in one way or another, explicitly, formally, directly or indirectly – the Palestinian National Authority.” The head of the Israeli government would rather “have Hamas keep control, at least over part of Gaza” because “it needs radicals on the other side”. “If there are no enemies for Israel, there is no Netanyahu. He needs them like we need oxygen (…) For decades, his only consideration is personal power. Everything else is transitory and almost insignificant,” he adds.
In the end, once again, it all depends on an unstable Trump: he imposed a ceasefire in Gaza on Netanyahu and stopped a possible annexation of the West Bank, but he continues to give him all kinds of support, without a clear plan. Indeed, after his first term, he clearly expressed what he thought of him in an interview: “I still love him. But I also love loyalty (…) I don’t care about him.”
The repeated statements by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz last week did not contribute to the “loyalty” then mentioned by Trump. Katz assured that the Israeli army “will never withdraw” completely from Gaza and that, when “the right time” arrives, it will establish itself in its north. Garinei Nahala former military program in which groups of young Israelis enlisted together and then established civilian communities. This contradicts the text of the ceasefire agreement (which states that “Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza”), Washington’s wishes, and Netanyahu’s own public position.
According to the Israeli press, the White House was also quick to call out anger as the Defense Ministry issued a statement clarifying that the government “does not intend to establish settlements in Gaza.” The next day, Katz (who has an eye on the leadership of Netanyahu’s Likud party) denied backing down (“this is something I’m just leading,” he quips) and stressed that the Israeli military “will never completely withdraw” from Gaza and will maintain an “important security zone even after moving to the second phase.”
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