Crisis in Asia: Japan and China close 2025 on a collision course

Without even having completed six months in office, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi embarked on a diplomatic conflict involving military threats against China, after declaring that Tokyo would respond militarily if the country advanced on Taiwan. The crisis marks the end of 2025 with an escalation of tensions between the two Asian nations.

After the October declaration, the rhetoric between the two countries hardened. During a session in the Japanese Parliament, the Prime Minister was asked about threats to national security. She said a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan, if it involved military actions, could pose a risk to the survival of Japan, which would have to use force to defend itself.

China considers Taiwan part of its territory and maintains the island has no independence.

China x Japan

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a news conference that Japan should immediately correct and withdraw the prime minister’s comment.
According to Lin Jian, “If Japan dares to use force and intervene in the Taiwan Strait, it would constitute an act of aggression. China will respond with resolute countermeasures. We sternly warn Japan to think deeply about its historical denials of crimes of aggression.”
He added that Japan must “immediately stop its interference in China’s internal affairs and put an end to its provocative and transgressive actions and words.”
In November, the Japanese Defense Ministry announced that it had sent fighters from the Southwest Air Self-Defense Force after identifying a Chinese drone between the island of Yonaguni, in the south of the country, and Taiwan.

As tensions rose, Chinese and Japanese ships clashed in early December near a group of islands in the East China Sea. The two countries present different versions of what happened.

The ships, according to local Japanese media, were armed with machine guns. The Japanese coast guard reported intercepting two Chinese vessels approaching a fishing boat.

Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke with US President Donald Trump and highlighted China’s position on the Taiwan issue. According to Xi, “Taiwan’s return to China is an integral part of the post-war international order.”

The new American national security strategy, published by the White House, has highlighted as a priority the deterrence of military confrontations, particularly in Taiwan.

After almost a month without making direct comments, the prime minister said on December 18 that Japan was still willing to open a dialogue with China.

“Communication is important precisely because there are outstanding questions and challenges. We always remain open to dialogue with China,” Takaichi said.

She stressed that “China is an important neighbor for Japan” and that it is necessary to build a “constructive and stable relationship.”

Maurício Santoro, political scientist and collaborator at the Center for Political and Strategic Studies of the Navy, estimated that, for Japan, it would be logical to respond militarily to China, in the event of a conflict between the Chinese and Taiwan. “Especially if the United States also supported Taiwan in a conflict.”

Maurício makes a comparison with the war between Russia and Ukraine, in which, according to the scientist, Ukraine’s main defenders are geographically close countries, such as Poland and the Baltics, “because these countries understand that if Ukraine falls, they will be next.”

Maurício thus asserts that, for Japan, it is more interesting for Taiwan to remain an autonomous governmental territory.

“They (countries close to Ukraine) would be directly exposed to possible Russian aggression. And it’s the same in the Asia-Pacific. If there was a war, if China occupied Taiwan, that would put Japan in a much more fragile and threatened position.”

Taiwan’s reaction

In response to the increased offensive, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te announced a special defense budget of $40 billion, in response to “increasing pressure from Beijing”, which will “significantly strengthen Taiwan’s asymmetric capabilities”.

The United States has approved an arms sales program to Taiwan, valued at more than $11.1 billion, that boosts the island’s defense capacity and is considered the largest ever for the territory.

The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) released eight statements detailing each sale, which it said will “help improve the security of beneficiaries and maintain political stability, military balance, and economic progress in the region.”