In Russia, in the 1990s, the aphorisms of Prime Minister Viktor Chernomirdine, products of clumsiness and confusion, became a genre in their own right, the Chernomirdinki. “We wanted the best and we ended up like always,” is one of the most famous. This is a phrase that could be applied to the ongoing peace negotiations for Ukraine.
United States President Donald Trump’s efforts to pacify the country invaded by Russia are on track to be completed in a year, although he had promised to complete them in 24 hours. In his latest attempt, held this Sunday in Florida, with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on the other end of the line, Trump said that this time they were “much, maybe much” closer to an agreement. A day later, Moscow announced it was reconsidering negotiations after accusing kyiv of carrying out an alleged attack using 91 drones against Putin’s vacation home just after Zelensky and Trump’s meeting. The Ukrainian president denied the facts and stressed that the Kremlin had used this pretext to blow up the negotiations.
The reality, however, seems different: there is nothing to suggest that the Kremlin intends to end its invasion until kyiv capitulates. According to various analysts, a hypothetical handover of the eastern region of Donbass would not satisfy the Russian president.
These are strange negotiations. Typically, experts from both sides discuss technical aspects first, and then the chairs take a photo. In this conflict, it is Trump who improvises his conversations with two leaders who are struggling to get the powerful American leader on their side or, at least, not to anger him.
Zelensky learned to deal with Trump. His impassive face showed it when the American president assured him on Sunday that Putin wanted peace. Zelensky has not responded since this interview which ended in a fight at the White House last February. For Zelensky, above his pride, it is a priority to make the United States his ally. He himself admitted last week that US military aid, particularly information provided by intelligence services, remained “critical” and difficult to replace by NATO’s European partners.
The Ukrainian president supported from Florida Trump’s words according to which “great results” are being obtained in the negotiations with the United States. But his words have a double meaning, as Zelensky seeks to praise Trump and win his favor. He is convinced that Russia will not accept his peace plan and that the war will continue. Sooner or later, Zelensky continues, the American leader will eventually get tired of waiting for Putin.
“Russian representatives are having long conversations (with the United States), but what really speaks in their favor are missiles and drones. Putin and his team do not want to end the war,” Zelensky wrote on December 27 after a new major Russian bombing on kyiv.
Two different plans
The result is that two different peace plans are on Trump’s table. One, the one which promises Moscow 27 points, which is part of the remarks made by the American president with Russia during the Alaska summit last August. Another, the one with Zelenski by 20 points, and which was partially agreed between kyiv and Washington.
The Kremlin – known for often lying about its intentions, such as in its 2021 denial of the imminent invasion of Ukraine – is very clear this time. Putin and his entourage have stressed that they do not want truces and will only accept a peace that meets their demands on what they call “the root causes of the conflict.”
“This plan (of 20 points) is radically different from the 27 points on which we are working with the United States,” warned Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Sunday. Two weeks earlier, Putin’s foreign adviser Yuri Ushakov said the proposals agreed in the draft from Washington and kyiv were “completely unacceptable.”
Ukraine, supported by a European Union marginalized in the negotiations, is proposing an unconditional truce which would freeze the front in its current position. Moscow rejects this idea. “We did not discuss it even once. We discussed various options for a long-term solution, but the reproduction of the Korean problem (the division of the Korean Peninsula in 1958 without a formal peace agreement) was never discussed. If these changes were introduced, we would strongly oppose them, our position seemed clear to the Americans,” Ushakov warned. Trump, as Kremlin officials indicated over the weekend, has gone from favoring a prior ceasefire to viewing it as unnecessary.
A hypothetical Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and Lugansk (the two provinces that make up the Donbass region) would not mean the end of the war either. Although he did not dominate them, Putin completely annexed these provinces as well as Zaporizhia and Kherson in his Constitution in September 2022. “These four territories are an integral part of the Russian Federation,” Riabkov said a few weeks ago.
No sign of the Kremlin
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, General Kirilo Budanov, explained to state television Suspilne on Sunday that he sees no sign, either from the war front or from the structure of the Russian army, that would indicate that the Kremlin is preparing to suspend the invasion in the medium term.
Boudanov estimates that Moscow will achieve its goal of recruiting more than 400,000 new soldiers by 2026. Next year, the war will continue despite negotiations, Budanov adds, as Russia is showing signs that it is pursuing its strategic goals: “Its military planning is clearly defined. Achieving full control of the Donetsk region, maximum advance in the Dnipropetrovsk region, and continued operations in the Zaporizhia and Kherson.” The head of Ukrainian intelligence emphasizes that the invader’s priority for 2026, regardless of negotiations, is to take control of the entire Donbass and advance as much as possible in Zaporizhzhia. Russia occupies all of Donbass, except for 25% of Donetsk province.
Putin is trying to show Trump that he has a strong position in the negotiations. The Russian leader disguises himself as a soldier and gathers his staff every time the American receives Zelensky to talk about war. This weekend was the sixth time he had done so inside a building that could be either a command center near the front or offices in Moscow. The message is always the same: the Russian army is advancing unstoppably.
“Our interest in the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the territories they occupy has been reduced to zero,” Putin said defiantly hours before the conversation with Trump. Ryabkov also recalled that another essential demand is international recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
One of the Kremlin’s goals in these negotiations is to destabilize Ukrainian domestic politics. While Moscow is demanding presidential elections from kyiv, in the midst of bombardment, Ushakov refused on Sunday to grant a temporary truce so that Ukrainians can vote in a referendum on a hypothetical peace agreement.
Kyiv wants real security guarantees from the West to sign peace. Ukraine fears a repeat of what happened with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, when it handed over Soviet nuclear weapons in exchange for a promise that Moscow would break with its occupation of Crimea and its invasion in 2022.
The Kremlin does not reject guarantees for Ukraine that include its signature. But in its negotiations with the United States, it not only vetoed the presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian territory, but also demanded that NATO move its defenses back to the German border.
One of Europe’s main peace proposals is the deployment of peace forces in Ukraine, the so-called “coalition of the willing.” “The ambitions (of European politicians) blind them: not only do they not care about the Ukrainians, but they also do not care about their own population (…) We have already declared a hundred times that (these contingents) will become a legitimate objective of our armed forces,” observed Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this weekend.
Zelensky revealed last October, days before beginning discussions on the US peace plan, that Ukraine was preparing for another two or three years of war with sufficient European support. This came to fruition last December, when the EU agreed to a new financial aid program until 2027 valued at €90 billion.
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