“We were the black sheep and now we can show the way to Europe,” he said. Giorgia Meloni during a gathering in Bari (Puglia). The sentence sums up a real change: at the end of 2025, the Prime Minister succeeded in ensuring that Italy ceases to be the “ … “recurring problem” of the euro zone to become a country transmitting predictability.
The coldest thermometer of this metamorphosis is in the debt market. The Financial Times reported on December 27 that the spread between Italian ten-year bonds and German bonds narrowed this month to around 0.7 percentage points, the lowest level since late 2009. This is an abysmal distance compared to the more than 2.5 points during the euro crisis in 2011, when Italy was on the brink of a bailout.
Rating agencies have picked up on this trend. Fitch raised Italy’s rating to BBB+ in September, and in November Moody’s raised it to Baa2 (equivalent to BBB) for the first time since 2002, citing a prolonged period of political stability and the implementation of the national recovery and resilience plan. This is a very important step.
Italy generally does not give its prime ministers a break. In this context, institutional stability is one of Meloni’s most visible assets: his government He is already the third oldest of Republican history and, if it reaches the natural end of the legislature, on September 4, 2026, it will exceed the duration of Berlusconi II (2001-2005), the longest-serving executive of the Republic.
This continuity is supported by personal leadership that meets European standards. And Meloni exploits the scene with a recognizable style: discipline and Roman notes seasoned with irony.
During the Christmas toast on December 23 with the staff of Palazzo Chigi, seat of the Government Presidency, he left a sentence that traveled through the editorial offices: “The year we have experienced has been hard for all of us, but don’t worry: next year will be much worse.” The final slogan sounded like a slogan: “We must continue to give answers to this extraordinary nation that can still amaze the world.”
The metamorphosis
The most relevant turning point is not in the humor, but in the metamorphosis of the image. Meloni arrived in Brussels with the label of Eurosceptic and, in three years, normalized her presence without renouncing the rhetoric of sovereignty. He illustrated this a few weeks ago in the Senate, during a clash with the former prime minister. Mario Montinow senator for life: “Unlike you, I am president of the government because the Italian people elected me. I only respond to Italians.
This internal legitimacy coexists with a pragmatic foreign policy. Meloni maintained his NATO alignment and strong support for Ukraine, and cultivated a fluid relationship with Washington during Donald Trump’s second presidency. Rome presents itself as a useful interlocutor: a conservative capable of speaking the language of the White House without breaking with Brussels.
Even dissatisfied voices acknowledge the leap. The respected historian Ernesto Galli of the Loggiaeditorialist of “Corriere della Sera”, compared the emergence of Meloni with the arrival in 1948 of Alcide De Gasperifounder of the Christian Democracy party and one of the most influential leaders of post-war Europe. For the historian, Meloni managed to transform his victory into something much deeper: an institutional legitimacy that transcends the acronym.
Meloni maintained his NATO alignment and strong support for Ukraine, and cultivated a fluid relationship with Washington during Donald Trump’s second presidency.
She went from being the “black sheep” of Brussels to a leader who, according to Galli della Loggia, has the historic opportunity to heal the divide that fascism left in the Republic. The comparison is bold, even provocative. However, Galli della Loggia himself warned last week of the existence of “two Giorgia Meloni”: one, effective and safe on the international scene; another, more locked into the logic of the party. The historian criticizes him that the authority and credibility he acquired do not always translate into integrative leadership within Italy.
A country in ‘Serie A’
“After three years, Italy is back where it deserves to be: in Serie A,” Meloni proclaimed. This argument is supported by some data: Italy is not growing fast – the forecast for 2025 is still less than 1% – but it has convinced the markets that it will not return to the policy of a high and uncontrolled deficit. The Government has proposed reducing the deficit to around 3% in 2025 (it was 7.2% in 2023) and the budget for 2026 aims to continue reducing it.
The other side of the story is industrial. Italy remains a manufacturing power supported by dense networks of small and medium-sized businesses, capable of exporting, adapting and resisting. This productive base, added to more predictable governance, explains why the country is no longer synonymous with shock.
But 2026, as Meloni acknowledged, will be a difficult year: the momentum of European funds is running out of steam, budgetary rules are being tightened again and the economy is arriving with fragile growth and wages under pressure.
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