The unpredictability of Spanish politics has made Castilla and León, first a few months ago in the electoral race with a view to the general elections initially scheduled for 2027, the third in the carousel of regional ballots which will close Andalusia, barring yet another upheaval, at the end of the next semester. The community, a pioneer in right-wing alliances when in February 2022 the PP had to adopt Vox and form the first coalition with the far right, faces a new revalidation with the recent results of the Extremadura elections, which show a strong PP but without majorities, a PSOE in decline and a Vox in full swing. The president, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco (PP), seeks to govern alone, which has not been viable since he was a candidate: in 2019 he had to make an agreement with Ciudadanos and, later, with the ultras, who released him from the mnao in the summer of 2024.
Mañueco closed the parliamentary year “with his homework done” and praising his “good results”, criticizing the PSOE and Vox for their agreements aimed at pinching the PP and its parliamentary minority “pin by pin”. The president also used “independent reports” to affirm his satisfaction with the legislative body and the “good work and achievement” of the political objectives of his party, in power since 1987. In addition, both in the Cortes and in his personal appearances, he followed the line of the PP in undermining the president of the government, Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), for “clinging to the presidency of Moncloa” and imposing an “unsustainable situation”, a a trick that he will try to reproduce in the regional elections. campaign to profit from the usury of the central government.
PP sources, after analyzing the results of Extremadura, specify that the electoral system changes the diagnoses: 43% of Extremadura “here it would be an absolute majority”, “But there are only two provinces, Guardiola was not clairvoyant”, they argue. The People’s Party won 31.4% in 2022 and these sources estimate that it can increase from the current 32 seats, but not much more. Vox then obtained 13 seats, with a strong 17.64% of the vote, but this voice of the PP believes that it no longer has much room for growth in this model of nine constituencies. He also considers the PSOE “dead”, “at risk of being residual with two or three more blows” but at the same time it is inevitable to come to an agreement with the ultras: “Without a doubt we have to depend on Vox, no one questions it, here the melon has been opened. The question is whether or not he enters the government. In 2022, they obtained it with the Ministries of Agriculture, Industry and Culture).
Parliamentary sources have still not revealed the date of the elections. They argue that there are two possible dates, March 1 or March 15, since the 8th is Women’s Day and the electoral law establishes that there cannot be demonstrations on election day and that Sunday is Women’s Day. The 15th has become a feasible option, since it is the last possible date for the duration of the legislature and that the popular Francisco Vázquez took for granted a few weeks ago, but parliamentary sources say that the 1st is getting stronger and stronger. This would involve the dissolution of the Cortés on January 5 and the removal of the forced appearance by the opposition so that the Minister of the Environment, Juan Carlos Suárez-Quiñones, could explain again the serious fires of the summer.
“They don’t want to talk about the fires but there has already been a specific plenary session and they have done no harm”, says another source consulted, who sees politically “a panorama similar to that of Extremadura. With one difference: Guardiola remained three from the absolute and Mañueco “will stay at all”. “Mañueco will have 35 in his wildest dreams”, says this source, who believes in a powerful Vox, although still without candidate, capable of exceeding 13 seats in 2022.
The PSOE demands that those with the most votes govern
The socialist candidate and mayor of Soria, Carlos Martínez, closed 2025 with force against his great rival: “When I talk about 40 years without alternation in Castile and León, I am talking about a democratic anomaly: an invisible president, who is not accountable and only appears under obligation. Mañueco is the worst president this community has had in its democratic phase. It’s time for a change. Martínez, who currently has 29 socialist deputies, has set a goal “between 28 and 34”, considers it “utopian” to think about absolute majorities and calls for “having more votes and more seats than the PP to look them in the face and say that their time is up”.
Its Organization Secretary, Daniel de la Rosa, details the proposal made to the PP to let the list with the most votes govern, which requires that it be agreed before the elections to avoid subsequent manipulations. “We recognize the very bad result in Extremadura but with a different reading from that of Castilla y León, there the PP does not have as much wear and tear as here with almost 40 years of government, the PSOE here offers more renewal,” says De la Rosa, with internal polls pointing towards a socialist victory. “Mañueco is a very bad candidate, he wins by inertia, he has no leadership, he is the worst manager and president. He has shown a lot of instability and I think that the fires and the Wind Park (trial of bribes of a million dollars in the ministries of the PP between 2003 and 2011) will exhaust him”, adds De la Rosa, who admits that “national politics influences and the PSOE is not not in a good time even if the economy is good, it’s contradictory.
The former vice-president of Ciudadanos and independent until the dissolution of the chamber, Francisco Igea, appreciates that Extremadura “makes it even more difficult for Mañueco to obtain a sufficient majority and that the PSOE enters a dangerous hole from which it will be difficult to get out. If Podemos and IU reach an agreement, they could collect part of the enormous discontent of left-wing voters and play an important role in the next Cortés”, he summarizes. “Vox is going to eat Mañueco, the worst fault of the PP of Mañueco and Guardiola is that everyone knows that they lack principles and that makes them legitimize and validate Vox,” says Igea, who believes that the conservative leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, will “regret” his approaches towards the reactionaries.
Localist parties are struggling to increase or maintain their presence. The Leonese Popular Union aspires to surpass the current three seats and take advantage of the discontent caused by the management of the fires. Soria NOW!, along with three others, will have to face the disappointment of not having obtained great returns by being outside the Council and with the soria origin of Martínez and Por Ávila, a split from the PP of Ávila, he would be content to keep his lawyer.
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