On the eve of the program start accumulation of reservesHe Central Bank reiterated yesterday that to achieve the goal it will be essential to “restore access to international debt markets” to refinance the capital terms of the State Treasury.
This statement can be found in the report on goals and plans for 2026, which the company he leads published yesterday. Santiago Bausili.
“This process, together with the growth of the companies’ external market, will lead to the transformation of the flow of reserve purchases into a Increasing the stock of BCRA international reserves“, they emphasize. And at the same time they add that the aim is that on this occasion “it is not necessary to use reserves to meet principal and interest maturities.”
In order for this virtuous process to take place, it is important that The country risk falls from the current 575 basis points to a level of 450 points. However, the official expectation is that this will happen within the first two months of 2026, provided the mood in international markets is appropriate.
The same report said that despite strong dollar purchases in the first two years, it was unable to accumulate reserves. The reason is that at the same time the debt maturities had to be covered from our own resources.
“As soon as access to the international capital market is restored, it is expected that the purchases made to supply the capital will take place from reserves Remonetization process This is expected to lead to greater accumulation of reserves,” they added from the headquarters.
Weeks ago, the BCRA’s calculation of possible purchases for 2026 was around 10,000 million US dollars, although it might be enough $17 billion. Everything will depend on the behavior of peso demand.
The danger is that the… Remonetization of the economy is above the market demand for pesos. In this case, there is a risk that there will be greater pressure on the exchange rate and thus an acceleration in inflation.
The BCRA has made it clear that participation in the stock market, at least in an initial phase, must not exceed the maximum permitted limit 5% of total daily traded volume. And it is also possible that block purchases are carried out so as not to change the way the market works.
Luis “Toto” Caputo He assured last week that this is the government’s aim Reducing dependence on Wall Street. And he spoke out in favor of growth in the domestic capital market. The new tax innocence law aims precisely to transfer more dollars to banks, even if they are not declared.
The goal is also to achieve that Work Assistance Fundwhich would be applicable to the payment of the severance payment. These resources would be saved by each company and the calculation assumes that this would generate an annual mass for investments nearby $4 billion per year.
But beyond these plans, the reality is that the government has great urgency to secure international funding. In the short term, the debts will continue to be paid from our own resources.
The expiration date of January 9th will be achieved with what was achieved in the placement of the Bonar 2029 ($910 million), but the Treasury has also accumulated dollars and already has more than 1,000 million US dollars in the central account. The question remains how to raise the rest to reach $4.2 billion. However, options also include new financing offered by several international banks.
The foreign exchange market reaches the end of the year with an official dollar rate of $1,475. However, the informal dollar jumped to $1,540 yesterday, widening the gap to around 4.5%. It is estimated that in early January the The official exchange rate could start to see more upward pressure due to the population’s need for foreign exchange in connection with the beginning of the summer holidays.
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