The following information must be taken into account: Between this month and December, Argentina will have to pay international organizations about that amount 2.3 billion US dollars. Dollars from reserves will be used, as happened. The point is that this way of meeting external debt obligations is running out. And you have to make decisions.
To pass it clean, If – as expected – this year’s remaining payments are made in BCRA dollars, then Net reserves will remain negative at approximately US$12,000 million.
And this is on a historical level: they have never been so negative before.
Therefore, in the market, investors are waiting for the next developments. It’s already huge again Requesting the government to start accumulating foreign currencies through direct purchase In the market. This is something the government was reluctant to do.
Before the weekend, Central Bank Director Federico Foriaci insisted on the idea that the possibility of accumulating reserves this time appears on the official agenda. But there is no plan on the table. for now.
Lewis Caputo’s Key Test: Wall Street’s Warning
PIMCO, one of the giants in international investment funds, puts the issue of the futures exchange market at the forefront of current analysis.
After listening to Javier Miley defend stock market ranges as they are now, Pramol Dhawan, head of emerging markets portfolio management at Pimco, came to the crossroads of this definition.
Dhawan noted that the government should take advantage of the overwhelming electoral victory and historical support for Donald Trump’s government to eliminate the gang system. Let your coin float. “I advise you to do it when times are good, if you want to break the cycle of boom and bust.” Investor recommended.
Debt maturities complicate the minister: Are reserves sufficient?
The demand from Wall Street and the City of Buenos Aires for Millie Caputo to rush to buy dollars on the market has a very concrete basis: The following obligations to repay debts to investors.
By 2026, external benefits will be calculated at approximately US$9 billion. That is $800 million per month. or Between US$30 million and US$40 million per day.
So far in 2025, the Treasury has not purchased dollars at net value and interest on the debt has been paid with an IMF disbursement scheduled for April.
“To clear the horizon of external debt, both legs are necessary: “Financial engineering of the US Treasury to refinance the principal and purchase dollars from the Argentine Treasury in exchange for interest.” L said iProfessional The financier is aware of the required numbers of debts.
The race between interest rates and the dollar
The market demand for Caputo to buy dollars back as quickly as possible – taking into account the obligations outlined above – must be analyzed in another context: This is the economic activity that was severely affected by market illiquidity and high interest rates in the period leading up to the elections.
In this sense, the government acted quickly: it played in favor of lowering the cost of money without entailing greater tensions in the dollar market.
As it stands, it has worked that way, buoyed by good sentiment in the market after La Libertad Avanza’s victory.
Funders’ eyes are now turning to the remainder of November and December.
The supply of currency will be very low. A large portion of dollars have already been liquidated by grain companies during September, due to the suspension of withholdings.
Summer resolutions
The beginning of the year 2026 will not be much different. There are long months remaining until the heavy harvestAside from the good harvest, the dollar price race may become hectic starting in January.
The need to continue to lower the cost of money coupled with the commitment to raise dollars to pay off debt will put pressure on the market.
“The big big challenge of 2026 will be “How to restore liquidity and activity versus how to prevent the exchange rate from rising and stop inflation”, The same financier he consulted suggests iProfessional
The government seems determined to follow a “step-by-step” approach to avoid disruption that would upend the variables and make them unmanageable. Difficult months are coming.
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