Keep it level Real business investmentAs a basis for the recovery of industry and a productive economy, it is the big key that can preserve the Spanish economic model in the face of the next slowdown.
But the data does not support. Latest estimates for Funcas, to which EL ESPAÑOL had exclusive access, They talk about this investment being 5.1% less than in 2019.
These are estimates prepared by the organization based on annual data from National Accounting (INE) For the second quarter of this year Inflation discount.
On the contrary, it is an investment public administrations, Although its size is smaller than the special size, grew by 41% Compare on fair terms. In this case, it is strongly encouraged by Next generation boxes.
The comparison was made between Funcas technicians Fixed conditionsThat is, discounting the level of accumulated inflation (deflation) in the past five years Greater than 18%.
If price development, investment is not discounted At current prices it always rises. But economists always prefer comparative data with constant prices to know the trends and real situation.
Figures handled internally at Funcas indicate non-financial private investment in 2019 182.5 billion euros. This data increased from June 2024 to June 2025 by 13.6% At current prices, Up to 207.3 billion.
An increase in five years is not considered very large and is characterized by pandemic years. But when the accumulated inflation is deducted, the equivalent remains in 94.9% Of the amount invested in 2019.
In the case of public investment 27.2 billion five years ago They were in June last year 45.5 billion. The linear increase is 67.2%. In terms of constant comparison, there is still a noticeable increase, By 41%.
This data confirms a worrying trend in real private investment that Funkas has already monitored in data for the entire year of 2024, and alerted to in its latest reports.
And it is true that Total investment (capital goods plus construction) It will grow in 2025 at high rates of more than 5%. With capital allocated to the industry above 6%. Also worth noting, with the latest reviews of INE, is the investment data on Intellectual property and construction.
But all expectations indicate that this data will remain Half of next year and the followingthrough which the expected industrial recovery and change in the economic model towards a more productive economy are at risk of being interrupted.
the Next generation boxes Public and private investments have taken hold in the past four and a half years, but their impact does not appear to have been uniform in one respect or the other.
Funcas already warned in its forecast report last month of “severe weakness” It will indicate private investment in 2024, with a decline in real terms of 6.7%, despite the upward revision of GDP data carried out by the National Institute of Statistics between 2022 and 2024.
“Although the decline in business investment is not as large as preliminary figures indicated, it is… The result is still very disappointing“Even more so in the context of the significant investment aid from Next Generation Funds and the great dynamism of the national economy,” Foncas said last month.
Their latest estimates now show that this vulnerability continues, without community assistance, which is about to expire Between August and December Next year, they can avoid that for now.
Less productivity
This worrying situation of productive and industrial investment, which various educational services have drawn attention to, contradicts an economy that is the most developed in terms of gross domestic product. Everything indicates that the year will end about 3%, More than twice as much as in the European Union.
The equation is understood if we take into account that the model is based on a force Domestic consumption Powered by Collective Access immigrants To low-productivity jobs, mostly in this sector Services and tourism.
However, Funcas has already warned that the arrival of foreigners will slow down in the next three years, due to the backlog of this type of jobs and the lack of job opportunities. Options for buying a home Which is located in Spain.
If we add to this the end of EU funds and the decline in productivity accumulated so far by industrial investment (3.7% since 2000), the economic outlook becomes complicated in the medium term.
This same Friday’s latest report BBVA Productivity Monitor, The downward trend triggered by these data was confirmed in 2025. The INE index had already advanced with an annual decline until the third quarter of four tenths.
Large-scale job creation in low-skilled jobs does not help improve productivity, which is more dependent on private industrial investment. Technology and digitalization. In addition to the quality of public institutions.
the Total factor productivity It has fallen by more than a point so far this year in the energy and industrial sectors, while growing at a slower rate in the services sector and holding up in the construction sector under the protection of increased investment in housing.
Despite everything, the Observatory data confirm Funkas’s narrative of underinvestment: if only the productivity generated by capital is analysed, the levels in 2025 will be similar to those in 2011 and 2019.
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