The story begins with a scene that until recently seemed like financial science fiction. The markets are quiet at dawn Indices continue to exceed their highest levels The flow of news is routinelFixed income is proceeding as calmly as usual, suddenly, arises abnormality Which turns the risk compass upside down. Some corporate bonds are issued at a lower cost than those issued by the countries themselves, which should be the security reference for the system.
The scene is repeated at different points on the map and is no longer just a technical detail or statistical anomaly. It’s a regime change that investors are watching with a mixture of surprise and caution. As this anomaly gains strength in countries like France or the United States, Spain is watching this phenomenon from the sidelines.
The heroes of this moment are companies that are rarely in the same conversation. Loreal, Airbus and LVMH in france, Microsoft In the United States. They all benefited from a very strange market window that allowed them to finance themselves under the umbrella of their governments., YesBased on market data compiled by Bloomberg and ICE Bank of America worldwide research.
French ten-year bonds exist 3.44% While the curve Loreal around 2032 It moves down a little. The difference seems small, But its meaning is enormous. Investors prefer to charge lower fees for lending money to a perfume manufacturer than the French state itself.
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, The numbers follow the same pattern. Microsoft, which maintains an enviable triple-A rating, took on debt at a lower cost than it had previously Treasury vs, According to data compiled by Bloomberg. This is a crossing that until recently seemed unthinkable in the American financial system.
When the good news isn’t so good
Usually the first reaction is to celebrate it as a sign of the strength of the work. Companies are able to bypass their governments. A sign of competitiveness. A blow to power. The role comes when analysts remember that this is normal Markets dictate that the state should finance itself at a lower cost than its companies.
when The opposite happens, We are not facing a corporate victory, but rather a symptom of sovereign weakness. France embodies this tension better than any other country.. Not this Loreal Be safer than your country. The French Treasury has lost part of the confidence it once inspired.Rating agencies such as Fitch have also warned.
In the United States, The crossing is more accurate, Although equally important. he Treasury It remains the cornerstone of the system, But the gap with higher-quality corporate bonds has narrowed to its lowest levels in a decade. The premium that separates Microsoft from the treasury is narrowing to the point that it practically disappears in certain departments“, according to the report”market Goldman Sachs Monitor.
This point can be better understood when the focus is broadened to include Germany. No crossovers or surprises there. The ten-year-old Bund keeps moving 2.9% No German industrial giant emits emissions below this level. Companies traditionally considered financial strengths continue to pay a positive spread in terms of sovereignty.
The case of Spain
In this context, Spain enters the scene in an unexpected role. Here the financial system is not reversed. Spanish ten-year bonds are still close to… 3.14% No large national company has been able to approach these levels.
In September, Repsol completed a historic dollar-plus IPO 2500 million dollars at clearly higher costs. The three-year period existed 4.8%, More than five years 5.2% The decimal part was installed approximately in 6%. Santander isn’t even close. Its flagship issues in sterling or euros move much higher than sovereign bonds. BBVA presents a similar pattern. The closest company, Iberdrola, doesn’t cross the border either. Its recent green bonds are in a range close to… 3.5%.
Data He cann To point out that Spain does not have solvent companies like its country. It may even sound like A symptom of a lack of competitiveness. However, Reality is something else. Spain is on the right side of this anomaly. It reflects that markets do not recognize the political or financial risks that penalize countries like France. While fixed income funds analyze which countries could replicate the French crossover and which companies could follow in Microsoft’s footsteps, the Spanish curve remains stable in a space other countries would already like to recapture.
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