The bad moment for the stock exchanges worsens in this Mars session, as it is the fourth loss in a row for the Ibex, which is accumulating a decline of 4%. Since the US imposed a large-scale advance, the Spanish market has never seen such difficult times. Today it fell by 1.5% and lost 16,000 pips, a figure it had achieved for a few hours since 2007 and which this time it managed to maintain for three weeks.
The accumulation of risks in markets around the world has increased: Europe is down more than 1%, the US is down more than 1% and is on the verge of losing another half a point today, Japan’s Nikkei is down more than 3%, and the cryptocurrency world is experiencing its toughest hours in several years. Specifically, in theory, when one of the obstacles hanging over the market, namely the US federal government, was overcome, inverters faced several sources of stress at the same time. The possibility that EE UU will stop declines in species, doubts leading to massive reversals in AI and alerts from financial authorities and some investors, the impact of geopolitical tensions between China and Japan, the decline of the world of cryptocurrencies and its derivatives in traditional finance and problems in the booming yet private capital markets… The list grows with each passing day, and inverters are having more and more difficulty storing clothes.
The instability is exacerbated after a week full of events that could determine the future of the market. In terms of types of interests, the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be published tomorrow, and the next day employment data for September. A crucial element of a face-to-face meeting, and key, are diciembre principles, as it is not clear in the market whether there will be a cut of sorts or not (futures give up up to 50% of options in each scenario). Tech Key, the secrets behind Nvidia’s public market accounts. Although extraordinary numbers are to be expected, the endless expectations that have awakened the internal audit staff imply that the risk of disappointment, even by a small note on a page, is higher.
“Perhaps, it will be necessary to provide strong results to reactivate the bids of AI companies, which have been somewhat weakened, despite the strong interest growth figures due to work in the technology sector,” notes Wolf von Rotberg, from J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM. “We believe the season underscores a fragmented macroeconomic panorama: AI and high-income consumers continue to provide support, while other industries and low-income consumers lag. In this sense, results from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot this week will be of interest for further insight into the health of the American consumer.”
Vinciso Vida, director of investments at management company DWS, warns that the increasing interconnectedness between companies in the AI sector could become a problem, making it increasingly difficult to determine whether a company is acting as a customer, strategic partner, investor or competitor. “Now we show again that we are more positive regarding the German income variable, which has only moved since the end of May.”
However, due to the growing risk aversion of inverters, they are less effective in other areas. The intersection price of the euro and the dollar remains stable at $1.16 per euro, while the price of oil is about $64. Gold, which on other occasions benefits from the fear of reversals, falls by 1% and maintains $4,000, although declines are only detected in types in the gold markets (which develop as much as the price): US 10-year bonds are below three basis points, German than Spanish, one and an average.
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