Three weeks away Legislative elections It was a decisive victory for La Libertad Avanza at the national level with 40.66% Of the votes, a new poll showed a Narrow margin in the province of Buenos Aires.
This is the latest poll by CB Consultora, which shows that Axel Kicilloff maintains the lead in terms of positive image in Greater Buenos Aires, the country’s main electoral stronghold.
The poll reflects that Governor of Buenos Aires It leads in 16 of 24 urban municipalitiesfollowed by the president Javier Mileywhich was imposed on him Seven regionswhile Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner heads to La Matanza only.
These data contradict the results of the October 26 elections, when she topped the official list Diego Santilli It edged Peronism by only half a point (41.45% versus 40.91%), reversing the 14-point lead Fuerza Patria gained in the local elections on September 7th.
However, at the level of personal image, Kiselov appears Better preserve your political capital In Kunurbanu, a fundamental fact in the context of the intense internal conflict of Peronism, which deepened after the collapse of October.
Miley vs. Kiselov and Kristina: who prefers Konurbano?
According to CB, Kicillof reached his approval peak on Florencio Varela together 48.3%specifically the municipality where Miley records her worst performance (25.5%), which indicates the presence of noticeable regional polarization.
At the other end of the political and geographic map, Miley gets her best shot Vicente Lopez (48.8%)an area in the northern suburbs that has historically voted for non-Peronist options.
In the same municipality, Kiselov (25.6%) and Christina Kirchner (20.6%) recorded Their lowest levels of approval.
The former president shows a more limited performance than her allies. With its best record at La Matanza (48.9%), The only area he leadsThe former president appears to have done just that Lost traction Even in traditionally Peronist areas, where Kiselov’s image now dominates.
Christina vs. Kiselov: Influence on the Pyrrhonian interior
This situation gains special importance in the context of… Indoor PJ Which deepened after the national victory of the People’s Liberation Army on October 26.
Shortly after, he was under house arrest Cause of the roadThe former president even targeted Kiselov, whom she blamed “Political error” in dividing the provincial council elections.
According to her, this decision “had a devastating impact on Peronism at the national level.” Now the opposition appears disarmed in the face of the ruling party, which was strengthened in the last popular vote.
In addition to Kirchner’s criticism, it brought electoral defeat Cross-cutting questions between the leaders of the Justice and Development Party and Kirchnerism.
While some mayors like it Mario Secco They defended land management and refused to be used as a “scapegoat,” as sectors close to Kristina Kirchner pointed out directly against Kiselov’s strategy.
For example, Senator Maria Teresa GarciaHe was close to the former president and considered the division “Strategic mistake” He stressed that “polarization was decisive.”
For her part, the mayor of Quilmes said: Mayra MendozaHe stated on social media that “Christina Kirchner was right.” About the dangers of division.
In recent days, former Pres Activate meetings in PJ To organize internal affairs and define a position on Maili’s reforms, in an attempt to restore the strategic leadership of the party.
However, the relationship with Kiselov is going through one of its most critical moments, with the ruler becoming increasingly visible Greater autonomy regarding Kirchnerian leadership.
Challenge 2027
CB Consultora figures show that despite the electoral defeat in October, Kiselov is maintaining his standing Valuable political assets in the province of Buenos Aires.
Its dominant presence in 16 municipalities in the Greater Bay Area Contrasts with the geographic focus of Miley’s support The richer areas are in the north And with The erosion of Christina Kirchner’s image outside their traditional strongholds.
Given Santelli’s victory, and his new role as Minister of the Interior, political analysts are pointing to this He begins his career by fighting for the position of Governor of Buenos Aires in 2027.
This poses a Scenario of direct competition with KiselovWho seeks to establish himself as the leader of the opposition at the national level.
The question surrounding Buenos Aires politics is: Whether the governor will be able to translate his personal best into votes in the next election remains to be seenOr whether the “Balotaghi effect” that Christina Kirchner has warned the split could structurally modify the voting behavior of Peronist voters.
Technical sheet
- Consultant: CB Consultants
- Sample size: 14,193 cases (average: 525-719 cases per municipality)
- Average sampling error: +/- 3 to 4%
- Field work from 4 to 8 November