The government should Raising $9,000 million for compliance The goal of the International Monetary Fund (International Monetary Fund), but the Minister of Economy, louis caputo, He downplayed it. Everything indicates that the economic team will seek to renegotiate the goal or ask for a solution Waiver. Two bad news for the markets And that, given the importance of the financial support provided by the United States, they should not make noise, but at the same time, non-compliance opens the door for the organization to continue. Add additional demands.
“The goals were to meet payments of $4.5 billion in January to more multilateral bondholders. “This is my money.”The head of the economic portfolio confessed to FIEL a few days ago. He responded: “The scenario changed after the elections and we achieved it.” Separating finance from cash. Today we see a buildup to BCRA strengthening. Financially, a list of options has been opened: a Chinese swap, an American swap, or an agreement with the banks.
One day after that statement, a spokesperson for the credit institution said, Julie CusackPressure: “The recent improvement in market conditions provides an opportunity for the authorities to strengthen macroeconomic policies, enhance stability and accelerate the pace of economic recovery.” Accumulation of reserves. But the Treasury Palace is not on its agenda to implement any timetable for purchasing foreign currencies.
Foreign investors test the dollar and exit the markets with Luis Caputo
The central bank will buy bonds after the process
That’s what Caputo and his officials told him morgan stanley, One of the largest investment banks in wall street, who brought a delegation of investors to assess the Argentine risks last week, Just as the profile said. “It is currently unclear whether the previously announced purchase schedule will be successful, given the low liquidity of the foreign exchange market in Argentina. Therefore, a more discretionary approach seems likely,” the entity noted in a report issued by. research For your customers.
He also pointed this out The exchange rate may fall between 10 and 15%. The accumulation of reserves will come after the liability process, i.e Bond repurchase Which the government is preparing for. Sources with ties to the United States, a major investor in the Buenos Aires stock market, and multinational banks with branches in Argentina agree it will be sooner rather than later. With the aim of reaching January with country risks ranging between 300 and 400 basis points. All eyes are on two titles, AL30 and GD35.
Renegotiation or Waiver Without power
Anyway, the next review will arrive in January, which is the test in front of the body that conducts it Kristalina Georgieva. “You simply need to renegotiate the target,” the former fund manager said. Claudio Loser in profile. A former official who signed previous agreements with the organization said that the employees of the International Monetary Fund “were politically committed” to the first disbursements, but after the disbursements and financial situation were damaged in the previous elections, the treasury appeared.
“It has political control, but less artistic buzz More political pressure from the US government. Obviously, they will say whether this year’s debt services are necessary in dollars. “We have to see whether external asset formation, such as tourism, will remain high if they do not request an adjustment.” Introductory account.
Metals activity saw a slight monthly rebound but is still lower than in 2024
But there is also a feeling that impact The IMF’s decisions have been made fluid by the strength of Scott Bessent’s support And the conditions required by the treasury. For a trader with an office in New York and connections to the IMF, “The problem with the Fund is that they have no enforcement. Even if they impose a new condition, why does the market think it will be met?” For a former official who was responsible for closely following negotiations with the credit institution, the waiver “is not a problem.” “It is a reprimand at school, but they can’t expel you anymore,” he said.
Reserves to sustain country risks
The accumulation of reserves is a market demand, not for the sake of ensuring payment to bondholders and strong special maturities, but for the sake of ensuring payment for bondholders and strong special maturities. “Sustainability” country risk reduction. “It is a requirement that companies come up with everything to finance themselves, as companies that have received greater support have done in recent weeks,” said a representative of one company that issued operating regulations after the election.
“During the Miley administration, the previous cap of ON placements of US$2,600 million per month had already been reached in October 2024, but in just the first two weeks of November, placements were already around US$3,000 million, equivalent to everything released in 2022 and 2023 combined. Nearly 98% of November emissions correspond to energy companies, which are again financed at rates of around 8% TNA With terms greater than 10, consultancy Envec said this implied deeper and more stable credit than that observed in previous months, where shorter maturities of two years on average dominated.
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