Fiocruz indicates a 44% increase in serious cases in the state; Understands

According to experts, the respiratory syndrome is a possible consequence of various infectious diseases, such as influenza and Covid-19, for example. However, not everyone who has one of these infections will develop a serious condition.

Deaths are concentrated among the elderly

The analysis identified older people over the age of 65 as the group most vulnerable to the disease’s lethality: 467 of the total 713 deaths due to SARS (65.5%) occurred in this age group. To determine the causative factors, tests were performed. Of those reported, 301 deaths resulted from a positive laboratory result for respiratory virus contamination. In this group of confirmed cases, influenza A virus proved to be the most lethal virus, responsible for 54% of cases, which equates to 163 confirmed deaths.

Among younger children, especially those ages 0 to 2 years, there is another virus that is a concern. Rhinovirus, commonly associated with the common cold, has killed 28 people, 11 of whom were children who did not yet have fully developed immune systems.

Researcher Tatiana Portela, from the Scientific Computing Program at Fiocruz and InfoGripe coordinator, explained the methodology used in the surveillance: – These are serious cases of respiratory viruses, such as influenza, Covid-19 and respiratory syncytial virus, which necessarily require hospitalization, and therefore need to be reported in a national database.

According to her, statistical models correct notification delays and allow monitoring the growth of cases in real time to issue alerts.

– Rio de Janeiro has crossed a high threshold over the past two weeks, with a tendency to increase the number of new cases. That’s why we consider it to be in danger. Of the 27 capitals designated, three are on alert: Rio, Mato Grosso and Pará.

Cold, dry weather and closed environments promote transmission

Tatiana Portela stressed that environmental and behavioral factors contribute to the scenario of high cases.

— During the winter, people end up spending more time indoors and with larger crowds. He explained that it is possible that these climate changes that we observed this year are one of the factors that contributed to this increase in cases, but they are certainly not the only factor.

With the significant increase in rhinovirus — the virus that causes most common colds — among young children, Portela reinforces the warning for parents:

The virus can often cause mild symptoms in adults, but they can get worse in young children. Therefore, the guidelines include: isolating anyone who shows symptoms; Mandatory use of a mask if isolation is not possible; Do not take children who show symptoms to school; Avoid visiting children – especially those under six months old – without a mask and care; And keep vaccinations up to date, especially against influenza.

The specialist explains that the rhinovirus belongs to the Picornavirus family and the Enterovirus genus. It is a highly contagious disease that spreads easily from person to person, mainly through airborne droplets or by touching contaminated surfaces and then touching your face.

In Tijuca, Sulamita Teixeira, 35, faced hospitalization for a week for her five-year-old daughter, who suffers from asthma, after her respiratory condition rapidly deteriorated. She says she has not yet taken her child to get the annual flu shot.

-We never know when we will be in danger. He said: I have learned the lesson: always vaccinate and take all possible precautions.

Capital is monitoring 7,600 cases, including 900 patients in serious condition

The state scenario is mirrored in the capital. The Municipal Health Department has activated high alert and is monitoring 7,633 cases of respiratory syndrome. Of these, the city recorded 5,755 confirmed cases of respiratory virus infections between January and November 15, and has already passed the mark of 900 serious cases that required hospitalization – in 2024, there would be just over 700 cases.

According to the municipal health secretary, Daniel Sorans, 37% of the cases detected in the city are caused by influenza A, which increases pressure on the hospital network. Since serious cases require hospitalization, there is concern about the need to open new beds.

-This is our biggest concern. Last year we had more than 700 cases, and in 2025, we will already exceed 900 cases of acute respiratory syndrome. This is very concerning because these cases require hospitalization. He said it would take more available beds.

Despite having the highest vaccination coverage in the state, with 49.7% of the population vaccinated against influenza, the capital is still performing below ideal. To expand access, the city council intensified its measures and installed a mobile vaccination truck, with visits to hotels and airports. The dose is available to anyone over six months old, upon presentation of photo ID.

Marcos Junqueira do Lago, infectious disease specialist and professor at UFRJ, highlights that children and the elderly should remain at the center of health surveillance. Although cases are mainly concentrated in young children – especially up to 4 years of age – the death rate is much higher among the elderly.

According to him, the child’s immune system, despite its efficiency, still lacks “sufficient memory” to recognize viruses such as rhinovirus. Immune senescence occurs in older people, a process in which there is a gradual loss of immune response.

– It (the flu) is the most aggressive of all. This is positive, because this is what we have a vaccine for. Those who receive the influenza vaccine annually have a ten times lower risk of developing respiratory syndrome due to influenza.

Analysis of deaths in 2025 confirms this dynamic: nearly 50% of deaths were due to influenza A, followed by COVID-19 (23.76%) and rhinovirus (14.6%).

Regarding rhinovirus, Junqueira explains that it spreads throughout the year, without clear seasonality, and can lead to local outbreaks.

Children are more susceptible to infection because they are born with an excellent immune system, but they do not have a memory. As for older people, they are the opposite: they know the viruses, but their immune systems are already fragile.

In another part of the city, in the western region of Rio, cleaning worker Maria de Rosario de Souza saw her father, Francisco de Souza, 85, hospitalized for two weeks after contracting the flu and having severe difficulty breathing.

She credits his recovery to updating his vaccination schedule: – We know how important it is to get vaccinated. Vaccines save lives, just as they saved my father’s life.

Wearing a mask, isolation, and absence from school are still recommended

In the face of the increase in cases, especially among children aged 0 to 2 years, experts are strengthening prevention measures. The guidance is that adults and teens with flu-like symptoms avoid contact with children, wear a mask and remain isolated whenever possible. Children who show signs of infection should not be taken to school.

Influenza vaccination, although it does not protect against rhinovirus, is essential to prevent network overload and reduce deaths from influenza.

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