With a stable exchange market and the perception of low political risks after the elections, City analysts are adjusting their forecasts for the dollar next year, in a context that promises more foreign exchange income from exports and investments.
In order to estimate what the wholesale dollar price could be until December 2026, iProfessional They analyzed what banks and consulting companies – local and international – had achieved The most accurate forecasts During the past year, according to a global survey conducted by FocusEconomics.
In other words, the analysts who predicted the development of the exchange rate in 2024 were taken as a reference, so now we know their new expectations for the coming months. History of his success He puts them as sources More reliable Within the International Committee of Economic Experts.
In fact, in January of last year Citigroup International Markets It expected that the wholesale dollar price would close in 2024 at $1,050, while the actual value is $1,032. This small difference placed the entity among the most accurate forecasters out of 40 experts surveyed globally.
The dollar price expected by the consulting company “No. 1”.
By taking these references as a basis, The forecasts made by these analysts last January (2025) for next December indicate that the wholesale price of the dollar will end at $1,427.
This is a number that is more than After 10 months, the price is very similar to the current price of $1,437 Who trades in the wholesale sector.
until, If more foreign exchange comes in through exports and investmentsIt may coincide with the number expected last January Citigroup International Marketing.
It is worth noting that in recent months economists have adjusted their forecasts based on the situation in Argentina, changes in mood and economic and political news. Above all, because of the impact of the previous elections and the sale of treasury currencies.
In fact, in a report Focus on economics From last month, Citigroup International Marketing It expected the wholesale dollar to reach $1,518 at the end of December. A Estimated devaluation for the whole of 2025 is 47%This is a figure that barely exceeds the average expected inflation of 42% for the same period.
In the end Market Expectations Survey (REM)The poll was conducted by the Central Bank with the participation of about 40 national economists, A The wholesale exchange rate at the end of the year is $1,500This is lower than last month’s forecast of $1,536 for the same date, when there was complete pre-election jitters.
If the reference is taken from the operations he performed In the MATPA-ROFEX options and futures market, the wholesale dollar rate negotiated on Friday for the end of December was $1,475.
To get an idea, Top float band It was established by the Central Bank in mid-April, when it issued the exchange rate for individuals, which is updated at a rate of 1% monthly, and today it is located at $1,499.5.
By 2026, in the latest FocusEconomics report, corresponding to November, Citigroup Global Marketing’s forecast for the end of December next year was for the wholesale dollar to reach… $1,776, A decrease of 61 pesos compared to what was expected in last month’s poll ($1,837) for the same date.
The interesting fact is that the December 2026 consensus of more than 40 economists from national and global banks and consulting firms surveyed was almost the same as the Citigroup Global Marketing consensus, i.e. it was $1,774.
Currently, the market is waiting for A Calm exchangeBecause it is expected that due to the tax reforms and labor reforms that the government seeks to promote, it will start generating greater income in dollars per year Exports and investments.
“the There is relative calm on the exchange front amid improved market expectations. Accompanied by a greater inflow of foreign currency into the official market and a more stable external financial scenario. The central bank’s interventions and moderate demand for coverage contribute to maintaining the gap between the various exchange rates at its lowest levels in recent months, which reinforces the scenario of reduced tension in the exchange rate. Ignacio Moraleschief investment officer at Wise Capital.
What are the most accurate projects of Argentine consulting companies in forecasting?
until An Argentine consulting firm was closer to the forecast made in January 2024 By the end of that year, he echo He goesConsidering that the wholesale price of the dollar will reach the end of December 2026 at $1,658. This is a lower number than previous expectations.
“If the government does things well and returns to the market, there is a possibility that the supply of dollars, especially if they come from the capital account, will be higher, with inflation controlled. This will allow us to obtain a lower exchange rate in the coming months“He maintains Sebastian Meniscaldieconomist and co-director of Eco Go.
To add that He said, “The political result of the national elections changed the current scenarioBecause last month it was expected that the government would not win, but now what was expected for the future devaluation has changed.
Beyond that, Miniscaldi shows that it still is “There are many things to decide, It is not known what will happen with the monetary program, what will happen with the exchange program, what will happen with the floating bands, and how the central bank will or will not buy reserves. He added: “There are a lot of uncertainties and things that still need to be settled from now on, so that we can clearly see what the path of the exchange rate will be.”
Currently, it is expected that a Low rate of increase of the dollar price And the rest of the economic references.
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