The dollar fell on Monday morning (11/24), with the week opening with investors’ attention to October Federal Revenue data and speeches by the head of the Central Bank (BC), Gabriel Gallipolo, who is participating in an event promoted by the Brazilian Banking Federation (Febraban), in São Paulo.
In the international arena, the financial market continues to follow the instructions of Federal Reserve officials (Federal Reserve Bank, the central bank of the United States) regarding the path of the country’s policy interest rate.
dollar
- At 9:07 a.m., the US currency fell by 0.24% and was trading at R$5.389.
- In last Friday’s session (11/21), the dollar closed up by 1.18%, reaching 5.432 Brazilian reals. It was the highest value in more than a month.
- As a result, the US currency accumulates 0.32% gains in November and 12.6% losses in 2025 against the real.
Ibovespa
- Trading on Ibovespa, the main index on the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3), begins at 10 a.m.
- The index closed the session on Friday, down 0.4% at 154.7 thousand points.
- As a result, the Brazilian Stock Exchange rose by 3.5% during the month and 28.67% during the year.
Federal collection
The IRS on Monday releases federal revenue data for October, as well as cumulative data for the first 10 months of the year. In September, revenues amounted to R$ 216.7 billion, representing a real increase of 1.43% compared to the same period last year.
In the accumulated period from 2025 to September, revenues amounted to R$2.105 trillion, with a real increase of 3.49%, also on a year-on-year basis. Without correcting for inflation, federal revenues increased 6.67% in September.
Considering only revenues managed by the Federal Revenue Service, the real increase was 1.88% in this period, for a total of R$210.7 billion. In the year to date, total managed amounted to R$2.016 billion, with a real increase of 4.1%.
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Brazil
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(Galipolo in Sao Paulo).
Another highlight of Monday was the participation of BC President, Gabriel Gallipolo, at the annual bank directors’ luncheon promoted by Febraban, in the capital, São Paulo. The Chairman of the Monetary Authority delivers a speech during the event.
Also participating in the February meeting are BC Supervisory Directors Ailton de Aquino Santos; Economic Policy, Diogo Guillén; Monetary Policy, Nilton David; International Affairs and Enterprise Risk Management, Paolo Piccetti; Financial system regulation and decisions, Renato Gomez.
Before participating in the Banking Union meeting, Galipolo met with the President of the Brazilian Association of Financial and Capital Market Entities (ANBIMA), Carlos André; CEO, Jose Carlos Doherty; And Market Representation Supervisor, Tatiana Itekawa.
Investors are expecting the BC president to make some comments regarding monetary policy. At the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), at the beginning of the month, the British Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, at 15% annually. Brazil has the fourth highest nominal interest rate in the world and ranks second in the global ranking of real interest rates (nominal rate discounted for inflation). The market is already anticipating the start of the Silic cutting cycle at the beginning of next year.
The base interest rate is the Bank of Colombia’s main tool for controlling inflation. When COBOM raises interest rates, the goal is to contain hot demand, which is reflected in prices, because higher interest rates make credit more expensive and encourage saving. Therefore, higher interest rates can also dampen economic activity.
On the other hand, by lowering Selec, the tendency is for credit to become cheaper, which encourages production and consumption, reduces inflation control and stimulates economic activity.
Interest in the United States of America
Investors are also awaiting Fed officials’ comments for “clues” on the path of the US policy rate. Following the release of the country’s official employment report (“payrolls”), the market has become more divided regarding expectations regarding the possibility of a new interest rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting in December. But in the past few hours, the perception that there may be further cuts has once again increased.
New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said on Friday that US interest rates could fall without jeopardizing the inflation target set by the monetary authority. Williams is a permanent member of the Federal Reserve and vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said US monetary policy is appropriate at this time. Dallas Fed President Lori Logan defended keeping interest rates at the current level “for some time.”
The United States recorded the creation of 119,000 non-agricultural jobs in September. The result was much higher than market expectations, which indicated the creation of 53 thousand jobs.
The country’s unemployment rate reached 4.4% in September. In August, the payroll showed the closure of 4,000 jobs in the country (revised data) and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
September snapped a streak of four consecutive months in which fewer than 100,000 jobs were created in the United States. This was also the first release of the report since the end of the lockdown – a shutdown of several sectors of government agencies, which lasted more than 40 days and was the longest in the country’s history.
The strength of the US labor market is one of the components that the Federal Reserve considers to set interest rates and cool demand in the economy in order to combat inflation.
Analysts fear that the potential acceleration of the US labor market will lead to a new tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In this sense, weaker payrolls data can be seen as positive, as they indicate more room for interest rates to fall – although there are also concerns about excessive deflation in the world’s largest economy.
Currently, interest rates in the United States range between 3.75% and 4% annually, after two successive cuts of 0.25 percentage points. The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate meeting, the last one this year, is scheduled to be held on December 9-10.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed holding interest rates next month was 24.7% early in the morning. Today, 75.3% of investors are betting on a new reduction of 0.25 percentage points, ranging between 3.5% and 3.75% annually.