On the occasion of Thanksgiving, stores in the United States will stop raising prices for turkey, but other foods may rise

The old brick farm, where Larry Doll raises chickens, turkeys and ducks, was in luck this Thanksgiving season.

The small Dole farm west of Detroit has had no cases of bird flu, despite an outbreak that is still developing More than two million turkeys are killed in the United States Just in the last three months. It also prevents other diseases, metapneumovirus Birds, which causes turkeys to lay fewer eggs.

“I try to keep the operation as clean as possible, and not bringing in other animals from other farms helps mitigate that risk as well,” explained Doll, whose family has run the farm for five generations.

However, Dole still sees the impact of those diseases The number of turkeys in the United States fell to their lowest level in 40 years this year. The hatchery where he gets turkey chicks was fewer in number this year. He plans to order another 100 chicks soon, although they won’t arrive until July. “If you don’t apply early, you won’t get it,” he told the AP.

It is expected to cause a decline in population Wholesale prices for turkeys increased by 44% This year, according to the USDA.

Despite this increase, many stores are offering discounted or even free turkey prices to mitigate the potential impact on Thanksgiving meal budgets. But even if the turkey is cheaper than last year, the ingredients needed to prepare the rest of the holiday dinner may not be. Customs duties on imported steelFor example, the prices of canned goods have risen.

As of November 17, basket of 11 Thanksgiving Dinner Essentialswhich includes a 10-pound (4.5-kilogram) frozen turkey, 10 russet potatoes, a can of stuffing and cans of corn, green beans and cranberry sauce, came in at $58.81, or 4.1% more than last year, according to Datasembly. Datasembly is a market research company that scans weekly prices at 150,000 stores in the United States. This is higher than Average price increase For food consumed at home, which It rose 2.7% in Septemberaccording to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The data set showed a A 2% decrease in the retail price of a 10-pound turkey Until November 17th. Calculating the costs of Thanksgiving meals is not an exact science, and the company’s estimate differed from others.

The American Farm Bureau Federation, which uses volunteer buyers in all 50 states to survey prices, estimated that Thanksgiving dinner for ten people costs $55.16 This year, or 5% less than last year.

The Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, using NielsenIQ data from September, estimated that 10 people would be fed next Thursday using private-label products. It will cost $80 This year, which is 2% to 3% lower than last year’s estimates.

Major supermarket chains also offer offers to attract shoppers. Discount supermarket Aldi advertises a $40 meal for ten with 21 items. Shoppers can feed 10 people for less than $50 with its menu of private-label products, Kroger said.

Earlier this month, Pres Promote Donald Trump In several messages on his Truth Social profile Thanksgiving food basket from Walmartwhich he said was 25% cheaper than last year. But that was because Walmart included a different assortment and fewer products overall this year.

Netizens quickly pointed this out The president omitted important information When comparing the 2024 basket with this year’s basket. Thanksgiving dinner The Walmart of 2025 has 15 items, while That the year 2024 offered 21.

But that hasn’t stopped the president from pushing the narrative that, after his return to the White House, Thanksgiving dinner prices are much cheaper than the previous year. He even commented on it during his press conference with the mayor-elect of New York City, Zahran MamdaniLast Friday, after the two officials met alone.

“We are seeing some promotions implemented to try to attract customers to the store,” said David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University.

This is strong though Wholesale turkey prices have risen since August. In the second week of November, frozen birds averaged 3.6 to 7 kg (8 to 16 lb). $1.77 per pound (about 450 grams), up 81% from the same time last year, according to Mark Jordan, CEO of Leap Market Analytics, which closely tracks poultry and livestock markets.

Avian viruses are the main culprit. But another reason for higher wholesale turkey prices is increased consumer demand Other meats are becoming more expensiveJordan said. For example, beef prices rose 14% in September compared to last year.

“For a large portion of the population, they look at cuts of meat and say, ‘I can’t or I don’t want to pay $30 per pound,'” Jordan said.

That’s the case for Paul Nadeau, a retired consultant from Austin, Texas, who plans to smoke a turkey this week. Nadeau said he usually smokes brisket over Thanksgiving weekend, however The cut of beef you buy now will cost more than $100.. He said turkey prices have also gone up at his local H-E-B store, but not as much. “I don’t know of anything that has gone down in price since last year, except for eggs,” Nadeau said.

The tariffs imposed by Trump on steel and aluminum imports are also causing prices to rise. Farouk El Mokawlad, Distinguished Professor of Management and Global Business at Rutgers Business School, said Customers pay between 10 and 40 cents more per can When companies pass on the full cost of tariffs.

Definitions, or DefinitionsIt may be partly responsible for the high cost of cranberry sauce or Brothwhich An increase of 38% over last year In the Datasembly survey. But weather was also a factor. U.S. blueberry production is expected to decline by 9% this year, impacted by drought conditions in Massachusetts, according to the USDA.

in illinoisThe dry weather actually helped stave off diseases that are more prevalent in humid conditions, said Rajella Scavuzzo, associate director of food systems development at the Illinois Farm Bureau and executive director of the Specialty Farmers Association of Illinois, where most of the country’s canned squash is grown. Datasembly found that a 30-ounce box of pumpkin pie mix costs 5% less than last year.

Back at the old brick farm, which had been in her family since 1864, Dole walked among her turkeys the week before Thanksgiving, petting their heads as they moved between her warm barn and an open pasture. Within a few days, he planned to deliver them to an Amish butcher.

game He sold 92 turkeys he raised this year for $6.50 a pound.Many say it is the best turkey they have ever tasted. He said: Enjoy the small benefit and feel good of serving the Eid meal.

“I like to think, you know, that we’re not only providing them with food, but we’re also providing them with a center for their Thanksgiving dinner,” Doll said.

With information from the Associated Press. Dee Ann Durbin reported. AP video journalist Mike Houseder contributed to this report.