Miley’s world today is 100% predictions. This is demonstrated by the jump that Trust index In government prepared by Di Tella University and Bulíarquia Consultancy: rose in November by 17.5% compared to the previous month, mainly due to the overwhelming majority Election result Obtained on October 26.
In the period since then, government He focused on preparing the scenario in which he would have to work to achieve those expectations. Over the weekend, details emerged about Alternatives Pending in the Cabinet, with the surprise promotion of the army chief to defense minister. The president will likely share the news more formally today when he sits down with his team at the conference The pink house.
Diego Santilli The remaining meetings will continue to conclude agreements with Rulers. In the next few hours, it will be the turn of Hugo Passalacqua, from Misiones, and if the agenda allows it, he will continue with Carlos Sader, from Jujuy. Louis CaputoIn parallel, he is responsible for determining the type of modifications that they will agree to make to the Budget 2026 To obtain the votes of allies in Congress. The goal is not to make a general concession, but rather to compensate the “outside” leaders who decide to accompany.
All this construction generates an optimistic assumption about economywhether on behalf of the business community or the community that supported him with his vote Freedom advances. But the question that arises is whether the speed that the government wants to grant to the administration will be sufficient to push back the signs of recession? Activity and consumption.
The main social concern is still defined by a four-word sentence: Money is not enough. In order to reshape income, it is still necessary to slow down the pace of price increases. November promises to continue 2% And December won’t be far away. The calmness of the dollar after the elections helped calm the adjustments. However, to reach the financial goal it will be necessary to maintain it The rate increases That allows cutting Subsidies To energy.
As can be seen, beyond that Reformist motive (Which, if all goes well, will further improve the investment mood for 2027) It is the government’s own needs that contain the recovery. Settings public services The caution applied by the economic team in reducing interest rates delays the return of credit.
The level of household debt is very high (every customer of the bank is in debt on average $5.6 million Also the default: 8.6%. Therefore, the only movement that can correct the course of consumption is the process of de-dollarization that is already being realized in the city. This demand for the peso should help BCRA (which need reserves) and would replenish liquidity to reduce the cost of money. We’ll have to wait a few more weeks to find out direction It is part of the virtuous circle that was activated on October 26.