he Dollar price Stable since the electoral definition in favor of the government, about $1400 In the wholesale market, so iProfessional Consult an economist who specializes in different sectors to find out How is the current exchange rate for major export items determined? Argentinians like Agriculture, oil and mining.
For reference, the The dollar price advances 36% throughout 2025It exceeds the cumulative inflation rate for the same period, which is about 26%.
Regarding the current value of the US note of $1,400, analysts see it as “competitive” relative to the main Argentine export sectors, but there are different nuances for each..
“From our point of view, The current level of the exchange rate remains favorable for the main export sectors With greater dynamism nowadays, e.g Oil, mining and agriculture. The almost 20% realignment recorded between July and September, to exceed $1,400, was important to avoid a significant erosion in profitability, in a context in which commodities trended lower until the middle of this year. Federico ZerpaEconomist and head of the sectoral analysis department at the consulting company IES (Sectoral Economic Research).
To get an idea, in Futures and options markets matba-rufixnegotiated a wholesale dollar End of December at $1,449.5 In the last few days of January, it was trading at $1,485.
The “ideal” dollar for the oil sector
now, Each export sector of the economy has more or less elasticity Regarding the movement of the exchange rate, to remain competitive.
“consideration to Oil sectorWith the current exchange rate we are at level Competitiveness is similar to the average of the past 10 years In particular The period from 2021 to 2023which were the gestation years of the current expansionary cycle with a double-digit growth rate,” Zerba details.
So this economist confirms this Export growth allows us to reduce dependence on the domestic market and exposure to increased dollar costs.“In a delayed disbursement scenario.”
“at present, Profitability margins in relation to the exchange rate are wider Compared to previous years,” sums up Zerba.
Therefore, in this context, it is considered that A The dollar rate above $1,200 to $1,250 “will still be appropriate to accompany the development of Vaca Muerta, even taking into account that the international price of a barrel of oil is at its lowest levels in the last four years, at the level of 60 US dollars.”This economist says iProfessional.
So, quote as example That last May, YPF It provided a sample of the sector’s ability to do so Accommodating a “less competitive” exchange rate.when “fuel prices were reduced to a dollar 15% higher than the current price and a global price below 60 US dollars.”
Mining dollars
As for Mining sectorThe wind is in her favor Metal prices are at high levels.
“For the mining sector, the outlook is encouraging, with gold trading at historic highs and silver and copper accompanying the upward trend. The sector’s export bias, with regard to lithium exploitation and the metals sector (gold, silver, copper), combined with the high proportion of operating costs denominated in dollars, due to its capital-intensive production matrix, places it as one of the most independent sectors with regard to the level of currency exchange competitiveness. For the economy,” reflects Zerba iProfessional.
In this sense, in order to further unleash the productive potential, he emphasizes this It is “essential” to have a favorable business climate and free currency movementSo that companies can make the necessary capital investments to develop projects under implementation, and then dispose of their profits.
In short, the IES data show that Lithium exports grew by 61% year-on-year Zerba explains that these projects, until last September, after the significant decline in their prices by 90% during the years 2023 and 2024, “demonstrate the flexibility of this type of projects and their wide profit margins in the medium and long term.”
agricultural dollar
As for Agricultural sectorIt is considered that the exchange rate situation of exports, Regarding competitiveness, it shows “significant improvement in the last four months”, as a result of a slight recovery in world prices, a permanent reduction in export withholding rates in July (when soybeans rose from 33% to 26%) and a more favorable exchange rate..
“According to our calculations,… The price received by the soybean producer is 40% above than the first semester average and 30% higher than the average of the last 20 years,” Zerba quotes.
In this same sense, he adds that Reducing the exchange gap between the official dollar and the cash dollar with settlement After the exchange market returned to normal last April, to save individuals, this was allowed Rebuilding the dollar income of producers And improve its financial position to meet the costs of imported inputs and machinery.
Meanwhile, l And other crops such as corn, sunflowers and wheat. believed that The scenario is similar“Although the improvement in profitability was not very significant, because the reduction in export duties was 2.5%,” Zerba concludes. iProfessional.-