The deletion of the letter of the Chinese Consul in Osaka, Xue Jian, in which he suggested “cutting the dirty throat” of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi, directly affects the escalation of diplomatic and trade tensions between Japan and China, representing a critical point in bilateral relations. This controversy arose in a context in which issues such as Taiwan, economic restrictions and the suspension of official communications were already on the bilateral agenda, as Bloomberg reported.
The tension worsened after the latest letter sent by the Chinese government to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres last Friday. In the letter, Bloomberg detailed, Beijing warned that it might take “self-defense measures” if Japan intervenes militarily in the Taiwan Strait, while seeking to shore up international support for its claims on that island, an area China considers a non-negotiable part of its sovereignty. Tokyo responded by rejecting the Chinese message and accusations about the alleged change in its historical position regarding Taiwan, defending the continuity of its policy and framing its comments and actions within its commitment to international law and regional security.
According to Bloomberg, the Japanese government confirmed its rejection of the “unfounded accusations” coming from Beijing and confirmed its readiness for dialogue. Japan’s executive spokeswoman, Maki Kobayashi, has publicly stated that Japan has been clear and consistent with China regarding the content and scope of its comments on Taiwan: and has repeatedly assured China of the scope of our comments. Kobayashi also expressed Tokyo’s intention to keep communication channels open to avoid further deterioration in bilateral relations.
Diplomatic friction gained notoriety at the G20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, where Bloomberg reported that although both leaders were in attendance — Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang — no bilateral meeting was held, and each was limited to briefly greeting each other during the event’s official photo op. Deliberately avoiding talking in person demonstrates the level of distancing that has been achieved.
The immediate background to this crisis links Takaishi’s refusal to retract his statements that Japanese military intervention is possible in the face of hypothetical Chinese aggression against Taiwan, a position that the leader recently endorsed, according to Bloomberg. In the face of Beijing’s repeated demand for a retreat, Japan insisted that its official position remain unchanged, justifying its rhetoric on the basis of regional security. Japan affirmed that all its actions and statements respond to the interest of maintaining the collective security framework in East Asia, in line with international law.
The practical consequences of this incident, according to information published by Bloomberg, include the suspension of high-level official meetings, the intensification of warnings by the Chinese government to its citizens regarding trips to Japan, the restriction of Japanese imports – especially seafood – and the postponement of the premieres of Japanese films in Chinese territory. These measures have frustrated previous attempts to redirect dialogue and improve bilateral cooperation at various levels.
In the area of security, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi expressed concern about the regional environment and reaffirmed the executive’s intention to increase surveillance against any possibility around Taiwan, Bloomberg reported. During an official visit to Ishigaki, an island in the Japanese archipelago located about 300 kilometers from Taiwan, Koizumi stressed the strategic importance of the coast guard base on the island, which he considers Japan’s first line of maritime defense. From Ishigaki, patrols are organized around the Senkaku Islands – which China calls the Diaoyu – whose sovereignty remains disputed, especially in light of the recent intensification of the dispatch of armed Chinese coast guard vessels in response to the strengthening of Japanese defensive capabilities in the southern region.
The Bloomberg post notes that Japan has increased its investment in military deterrence on its southernmost islands due to the perception that China has increased its war capability, while at the same time increasing the risk of direct confrontation if the Taiwan issue escalates. The dispute over Taiwan’s sovereignty has a long history: the formal separation between China and Taiwan after civil war in 1949 gave way to decades of institutional separation, with only limited contacts restored in the 1980s and without full diplomatic relations ever established.
The rivalry still exists, and is often exacerbated by events such as the current one, where any move by one party could be interpreted as a provocation or a paradigm shift in the region’s security policy. The recent mutual responses reflect the difficulty of moving towards positions of understanding in a scenario dominated by mistrust and unilateral actions at the political and commercial levels.
Tokyo insists on opening areas for dialogue, while Beijing has chosen to tighten its messages, constantly referring to the “one China” principle and defending its territorial integrity. According to Bloomberg, none of the activated diplomatic mechanisms have yet succeeded in achieving any tangible progress in resolving the differences, and the political, economic, and security dynamics are still characterized by tension and divergence.