The dollar moved close to stability on Wednesday morning (11/26), a day when investors pondered data on Brazil’s so-called inflation “preview”, which was released this morning by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Also on Wednesday, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva sanctioned a law that expands the income tax (IR) exemption for those earning up to R$5,000 per month and establishes deductions for income up to R$7,350 per month.
Externally, market attention remains focused on the United States, amid expectations of a new interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for December.
dollar
- At 9:06 a.m., the US currency advanced 0.04% and was trading at R$5.379, practically flat.
- The previous day, the dollar ended the day down 0.35%, reaching R$5.376.
- As a result, the US currency accumulated losses of 0.07% per month and gains of 13% per year against the real.
Ibovespa
- Trading on Ibovespa, the main index on the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3), begins at 10 a.m.
- The index closed the previous session up by 0.41% at 155.9 thousand points.
- As a result, the Brazilian Stock Exchange achieved a rise of 4.26% in November and 29.62% in 2025.
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Inflation preview
In the domestic scenario, the highlight of the day is the release of the national broad Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), which is considered a “preview” of the country’s official inflation for November.
In November, the IPCA-15 was 0.2%, accelerating compared to October (0.18%). In the 12 months to November, the index was 4.5%, lower than the 4.94% recorded in the immediately preceding 12 months.
In the first 11 months of 2025, the index reached 4.15%.
The result was practically in line with the average estimates of market analysts, which amounted to 0.18% on a monthly basis and 4.49% on an annual basis.
IPCA has been calculated since 1979 by IBGE. The index is considered the official inflation thermometer and is used by the central bank to adjust its base interest rate, the Selec, which currently stands at 15% annually.
It measures the variation in monthly prices in a basket of different products and services and compares them to the previous month. The difference between the two items in the equation represents the inflation rate for the month observed.
The IPCA measures data in cities, in order to include 90% of people living in urban areas in the country. The index looks at prices for categories such as transportation, food and beverages, housing, health and personal care, personal expenses, education, communications, clothing, household items, and others.
IR exemption up to R$ 5,000
This Wednesday, the market is also following the penalty of the project that exempts those who receive up to R$5,000 per month from income tax. The ceremony will be held at Palacio do Planalto, in Brasilia.
The federal government transmitted the text of the law in March to the National Congress, and it was approved in October by the House of Representatives, and at the beginning of the month by the Senate.
Currently, the IR exemption only applies to those earning up to R$3,076 (minimum wage). The new legislation will exempt, from January 2026, a monthly income rate of up to R$5,000 for individuals.
For those who earn between R$5,000.01 and R$7,350, there will be a partial reduction in the amounts to be paid – the lower your income, the greater the reduction. This measure will not include taxpayers whose income exceeds R$7,350.
To compensate for the loss of revenue due to the exemption, the project provides for an additional gradual rate of up to 10% for those who receive more than R$600,000 per year, equivalent to R$50,000 per month. The text also specifies the tax on profits and profits transferred abroad at 10%.
The approval of the project comes at an appropriate time for Lula. Last week, the federal government was defeated by approving a dried-out version of the anti-factionalism bill – at the same time as the public security agenda is slowing the recovery of the executive branch’s popularity.
Furthermore, the appointment of the Minister of the Attorney General’s Office (AGU), Jorge Messias, to Luis Roberto Barroso’s seat on the Supreme Federal Court (STF) strained Lula’s relationship with the President of the Senate, Davi Alcolombre (União Brasil-AP), who was a supporter of the appointment of Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG). After the announcement of Planalto, Alcombre announced the vote on projects that conflict with the government.
Despite the noise, the Presidents of the Senate and the House of Representatives, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), were invited to the ceremony. The two shared the podium with Lula when the bill was sent to Congress in March of this year.
Expanding income tax relief was one of Lula’s campaign promises in 2022. With the 2026 elections approaching, the measure also becomes an asset for the PT MP’s re-election campaign.
Fed Beige Book
Internationally, investors are considering the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday. The document collects information about US economic activity and serves as a compass to guide the market regarding the monetary authority’s perceptions of indicators such as inflation and employment.
In recent days, the market has become more optimistic about the possibility of a new interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting. Currently, interest rates in the United States range between 3.75% and 4% annually, after two successive cuts of 0.25 percentage points.
The Fed’s next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (Fomc) to set interest rates, the last of the year, is scheduled for December 9-10.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, about 85% of investors were betting on a new cut of 0.25 percentage points, to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% annually.
analysis
According to Bruno Chahini, investment specialist at Nomad, the dollar’s path this week was following “external dynamics of the US currency’s weakness, reflected in a decline in the DXY index (which measures the dollar’s performance against a basket of foreign currencies), as investors recalibrated their bets on a December Fed rate cut.”
“This move was driven by rhetoric from leaders like the Fed, which warned against overly restrictive monetary policy, and ended up being supported by cooler activity data – with core PPI (the US producer price index) and retail sales falling short of expectations,” says Shahini.