The broad national Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), considered a preview of inflation, recorded that prices of goods and services in Brazil rose 0.20% in November. The data was released on Wednesday (11/26) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
IPCA-15
- The IPCA-15 index differs from the IPCA, which measures the country’s official inflation, in terms of geographical coverage and the collection period, which begins on the 16th of the previous month. For this reason, it serves as a preview of the IPCA.
- The index collects data on households whose income ranges from 1 to 40 minimum wages. It covers: Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belem, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, Brasilia and Goiânia.
- The next announcement for December will be made on December 23.
- IPCA-15 Highlights for October.
In the 12-month period, inflation expectations rose by 4.5%, lower than the 4.94% recorded in the immediately preceding 12 months. In the year, an increase of 4.15% is accumulated. In November 2024, the IPCA-15 was 0.62%. In October last month, the increase was 0.18%.
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IPCA-15 will be released on Wednesday (11/26). High expert project
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Inflation Preview, IPCA-15 rises 0.18% in October
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IPCA-15 will be released on Friday (10/24); High market projects
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Inflation Preview: After declining, the IPCA-15 accelerated to 0.48% in September
The October result was affected by the performance of personal expenses by 0.85%, health and personal care by 0.29%, and transportation by 0.22%. In the personal expenses group, the result was mainly influenced by increases in accommodation (4.18%) and tourism programs (3.90%).
According to the institute, there was a decline, which led to a decline in the index in the groups of household appliances (0.2%) and communications (0.19%).
Check out the variety of collections:
Food and beverages: 0.09%; Housing: 0.09%; Housewares: -0.2%; Clothing: 0.19%; Transfer: 0.22%; Health and personal care: 0.29%; Personal expenses: 0.85%; Education: 0.05%; Communications: -0.19%;
Expectations
Financial markets expected an increase in inflation expectations for November. Warren Investimentos expected an increase of 0.13%, bringing cumulative inflation over 12 months to 4.43%.
The consulting company expected a breakthrough in the “Housing” group, with an estimated contraction of about 0.05% due to lower electricity prices and rents, which should follow stable paths.
Another perspective to look at inflation is electronics prices, which, in Warren’s view, should show a decline due to Black Friday.
As for Daycoval Bank, it had estimates for a higher increase of 0.19%, driven by food prices, airline tickets and dining out.
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economy
IPCA-15 will be released on Wednesday (11/26). High expert project
-
economy
Inflation Preview, IPCA-15 rises 0.18% in October
-
economy
IPCA-15 will be released on Friday (10/24); High market projects
-
economy
Inflation Preview: After declining, the IPCA-15 accelerated to 0.48% in September
Market expectations, as measured by the central bank’s concentration bulletin, indicate that the index will close 2025 at 4.45%. This level is above the target center of 3%.
However, if market expectations are confirmed, Brazil will end the year with inflation within the permissible range. Although the target center is 3%, there is a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less. Therefore, a ratio of 1.5% to 4.5% is considered acceptable.
The Ministry of Finance expects the inflation rate in 2025 to reach 4.6%. The figure appears in a report released by the Secretariat for Economic Policy (SPE) on Thursday (13/11).