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They predict that La Niña will affect Uruguayan agriculture
A forest fire during the 2023 drought is fought by an agricultural sprayer in Rocha, eastern Uruguay. Photo: Sebastián Astorga Rostani.
Meteorologists have announced a high probability that the La Niña climate phenomenon will affect Uruguay during the 2025-2026 season, which will pose significant challenges for the agricultural sector.
La Niña is defined by the anomalous cooling of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This temperature change alters global atmospheric circulation patterns, often resulting in above-normal temperatures and low precipitation in the southern cone of South America, including Uruguay, during the austral summer.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a federal agency under the Department of Commerce, estimates a 54% probability that La Niña will develop during the quarter from December 2025 to February 2026, according to a report from the entity’s Climate Prediction Center.
The phenomenon is expected to prolong existing drought conditions, with effects that will last until April 2026. Despite increasing signs, NOAA needs four to six consecutive weeks of negative sea temperature anomalies to officially declare a La Niña event.
The combination of above-average heat and below-average precipitation is estimated to begin in the spring of 2025 and intensify through the summer.
These conditions represent a significant risk to agriculture, exacerbating the persistent vulnerability to drought that Uruguay has experienced in recent years.
October began with increasing evidence of the formation of the La Niña phenomenon in the Equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific remained at levels that suggest the onset of La Niña for the second week in a row, according to Metsul.
The 2020-2022 La Niña drought was one of the strongest in the last 60 years in Argentina, causing crop losses of nearly 30 million tons of soybeans, corn and wheat.
Meanwhile, in Brazil, the drought in the South will contrast with the North and Northeast, where the trend is for increased rainfall and possible flooding.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) estimates a 60% chance of La Niña establishing itself during the October-December quarter.
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