Louis Caputo Defined as “Big data” EMAE for September, a definition shared by everyone in the market however For various reasons. For the government, this is the surest proof that the economy is on the right track; For some economists, it raises doubts about the statistical management of the economy Indic; For many business people, this is confirmation that access to credit is so low that the economy can grow even with stratospheric interest rates.
What is undeniable is that It was a big surprise. The fact is that in September, the month that coincided With rising interest rates With the exchange rate holding steady, economic activity registered a 5% year-on-year increase, and even a 0.5% improvement compared to the previous month was something not even the most optimistic members of the economic team expected.
In fact, both Caputo and his officials emphasized the importance of economics Grown ‘despite electoral uncertainty and political attack’. He expected that maximum activity would soon be reached.
But the September data wasn’t just surprising;The entire third quarter ended up being a quarter of growth, thanks to the fact that it was Indec made a retrospective correction From the numbers recorded for July and August. Thus, it is technically denied that the economy is in a recession.
Winners and losers
The controversy was immediate. Firstly, Because the numbers show that the economic model developed by Javier Miley implies very uneven growth depending on the sector.with a clear difference between “Winners and losers.”
Put in the numbers, while The manufacturing sector declined 1% year-on-year The percentage of financial intermediation increased to 39.7%. Some interpreted these numbers as a “model that favors financial speculation,” but the reality was that during that period as well Banks suffered losses The most recent balance sheets are also shown.
According to the economist Ricardo Delgado, From the consulting firm Analytica, she points out that this data is exaggerated due to statistics It takes into account the high bank spread – As a result of an increase in interest rates – but not the negative impact of an increase in reserve requirements.
Economy with low thermal sensation
The truth is that official optimism contradicts the pessimism of industrialists. In the third trimester of pregnancy, it is used Installed capacity of medium factories 59%which is a level lower than the historical average. In some cases, such as Textile branchFor, the numbers are alarming: Only 37% of capacity.
There is also a discrepancy between GDP growth and the trade situation: INDEC reported that supermarkets recorded a real year-on-year decline of 0.8% in September and 0.2% compared to the previous month. There were also declines in malls, which sold 3.4% less than a year ago.
Data on business closures during the first five quarters of Miley’s administration had previously raised concerns. 97,110 companies closed, while 79,787 companies opened, leaving a net negative balance of 17,323 companies.
In business rooms, these data are interpreted not only as a temporary decline in activity, but as a sign of the current economic model. In fact, there are expectations that the situation will worsen as a result of the opening of trade.
At the recent annual conference of Argentine Industrial FederationCEO of Techint, Paolo RoccaHe protested against the massive entry of Chinese hardware already ready, and said that Miley’s government does not understand the new geopolitical game.
“A few years ago, industrial policy was just a labor and tax reform. Today the world is seriously discussing it, from the United States to the European Union,” the industrial leader said, criticizing Miley because while other countries propose defenses of strategic sectors, “Argentina continues the rhetoric of complete neutrality.”
Foreign trade figures exacerbate this sentiment: imports have now exceeded US$7 billion for two months, and items linked to final consumption already represent a quarter of this amount.
INDEC data that sparked controversy
But another political controversy was added to the economic debate: the insinuation of existence “Something strange” in the revision of the corresponding figures for July and August, One point was added to the activity index.
In fact, it is not uncommon for there to be corrections, because the very nature of EMAE means that they are temporary datasets, which are subsequently enhanced. Despite this, the size of the correction has been highlighted by several consulting firms, and there have been those who have called on Indec to provide explanations for this change in numbers.
“Thus, while preliminary data in the previous post showed a decline of 0.6% in the first eight months of the year, New data shows an increase of 0.5% in the same period. With a monthly growth of 0.5% in September, the cumulative growth during the year rose to 1%. Basic life-saving condom consultations.
To make the situation worse, there is a contradiction with the REM survey in which banks and economic consultancies participate, which was expected to be the third quarter of the year. It will have a negative variance of 0.5%.
In addition, reports issued by international banks present in the country are well known, in which they openly talk about a stagnant climate in the economy.
Some analysts treated this situation with sarcasm: “With this level of rates the economy grew in September. Argentine businessmen are truly patriotic. They bet on production rather than financial fraud. They are heroes.” Christian Butler.
And this reference to the September financial crisis is precisely at the center of another debate left by EMA: should we not trust the official numbers, or should we really trust the official numbers? The effect of interest rates is marginal In an economy with low credit levels like Argentina?
Does the rate matter?
In the middle of the exchange rate path, Lace rise The Leliqs disarmed it cComplex banking operationsA, The tone of the third quarter was chaos in interest rates, which saw wild swings on the same day. At the worst moments, overdraft loans – the very short-term financing used by businesses – rose to more than 180% of the nominal annual rate.
Banks warned that in light of this situation characterized by lack of cash liquidity, the matter is hypothetical It is impossible to give loans To the private sector.
For this reason, after learning about the EMAE, the question arose about what is the real impact of credit on activity. “Does the expansionary effect of exchange rate depreciation overcome the recessive effect of the exchange rate?” he asked. Lucas LachFormer Deputy Minister of the Central Bank during the Macrista administration.
andIt is an argument that generates support, and implies that the impact of a stronger dollar – the result of improved export competitiveness – is stronger than any decline in interest rates, especially in sectors such as SMEs, which are already structurally severely constrained in their access to bank financing.
In numbers report from Counselor 1816 He has already warned of a decline in the ratio of private credit to GDP: Only 12%While private financing in Chile reaches 203% and in Brazil it reaches 76%.
Half boom
In Caputo’s speech, it is precisely the credit issue that emerges as a driver of expected growth in the coming years. The Minister asserts that once the “coca threat” has passed, there will be room to reduce interest rates Strong expansion of credit, including mortgage credit.
On the other hand, economists prefer to be more cautious. “Post-election stabilization and interest rate cuts may give credit some impetus, but we don’t think it will perform again the same way as it did in 2024.said consulting firm LCG, highlighting the alarming fact of rising bank debt delinquencies, which have reached their highest level in the past 15 years.
“Specifically, we continue to expect modest growth for the remainder of 2025, consistent with An increase in GDP at a rate of 4% annually (1% Dec/Dec),” adds LCG.
With regard to sectoral disparities, Economists believe it will increase: in fact, they do not see a boom in consumption and expect growth next year to be driven, primarily, by the economic crisis. Oil, mining and agriculture.