he Indic Published EMAE data that approximates the development of monthly GDP. Despite the financial turmoil he is experiencing economy From mid-year onwards, performance has been good, but with significant differences between sectors.
If the numbers corrected for seasonal effects are analysed, EMAE September 2025 was 5% higher than November 2023, the last full month of the year. government former. but Industrial activity It was lower by 4.4% and construction by 20%.
If the data for September is compared to the same month in 2023, it becomes clear that there are strong sectors growth In two years (agriculture and livestock, fishing, mining/energy, hotels and restaurants, financial intermediation), other sectors witnessed significant declines (industry, construction, electricity, gas and water) and the rest of the sectors Services With minor changes, positive or negative.
In short, more than reasonable performance economy Who suffered mightily Tax correction In the first year of the current and strong government Cash and credit restrictions In the current year, especially from mid-July onwards.
If the 2026 budget is approved in accordance with the project Executive authority Which aims to achieve the same primary surplus as in the current year, no relevant direct impact of fiscal policy on the level of activity can be expected. On the other hand, the rapid normalization of financial variables after the election October 26 It should help improve the performance of the economy in the future. in sincere We expect somewhat higher growth for next year 3% (Slightly more optimistic than the average analyst).
For its part, after the noticeable recovery in recent months, Economic inflation The downward trajectory should resume next year. It is important to continue moving forward even when the final data is somewhat larger than expected National government.
It is reasonable to expect a Refund money in pesos From economics. This conclusion can be obtained from historical analysis of money demand for transactions in periods Low inflation Moreover, after the high dollarization decided by economic actors in the period preceding the elections Midterm elections.
This would give huge space to issue money at no cost that could be used to accumulate reserves in the world BCRA Or reduce the weight of the treasury debt in the local currency. Despite the positive scenario that has emerged after the elections, there are always risks and hence it seems prudent to enhance the firepower of the army. Monetary authority With own resources to supplement what was achieved through barter.
inside External risks It could indicate a change in support from the US government (which seems unlikely), or a decline in the global price of oil, which has a high probability if the results are analyzed. Information From international experts on this subject. In Argentina, the risk of drought is always present, but this seems unlikely given current conditions Climate forecasts The current condition of the soil. An increase in the US interest rate or strengthening dollar In relation to other currencies, it seems that they have been chosen to withstand more inflation to counter the increasing weight of the dollar. Public debt US.
With the weight floating near the ceiling band The question is whether there is room for BCRA to buy reserves. In theory, if the increase in demand for the peso were to materialize, this would generate pressure on the dollar to appreciate BCRA can buy by issuing pesos to avoid this. But operate close to the band ceiling ie It happened It can interrupt the process and deteriorate the outlook.
Take advantage of Financial calm After the election, it should be analyzed whether it is necessary to correct the range Flotation. The move towards free floating (which the government itself has postponed until 2028) carries risks without its own international reserves. So it seems that if there is any change it will be in Range limits. The floor has become irrelevant, and increasing it should not cause complications. A It changes In this sense, it will give a clearer signal about the level at which BCRA will or will buy.
But modifying the ceiling seems more complicated. If the rhythm Monthly consumption This may negatively affect peso interest rates and/or inflation rates. A one-time jump would limit Negative effect around Interest ratesBut it may create expectations that this ceiling will not be respected in the future.
But beyond the difficulty, the important thing is that there is a process of accumulation Reservations Through market purchases when the government seems to be living its conditions The best economic moment In months.
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