As Donald Trump’s administration considers using force to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, former diplomats and even some prominent Maduro critics fear that his political rivals in Venezuela are promoting exaggerated claims and lies to justify U.S. intervention. Maria Corina Machado, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October and is considered an opposition leader, has recently amplified false claims that Maduro rigged elections in several countries, including the United States, allying closely with President Trump and his allies.
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– I have no doubt that Nicolas Maduro, Jorge Rodriguez and many others are the masterminds of a regime that rigged elections in many countries, including the United States – referring to the President of Venezuela and the Speaker of the National Assembly.
Over the weekend, Trump doubled down on his unproven claims that Venezuela interfered in the 2020 election.
María Corina and other opposition leaders have also alleged that Maduro simultaneously heads two separate drug trafficking organizations, posing a threat to US national security. Likewise, the Trump administration has sought to link Maduro to both groups.
The Trump administration has designated these two groups, Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles, as terrorist organizations. Trump administration officials also claimed that the United States was in armed conflict with “narco-terrorist” drug cartels to legitimize the attacks on 21 ships, which have killed at least 83 people since September.
But government intelligence agencies, Latin American drug trafficking experts and other Venezuelan opposition figures have rejected the idea that Maduro controls the two groups or uses them as a tool against the United States. Although experts agree that figures in the Venezuelan armed forces are involved in drug trafficking, some question that these organizations are even transnational drug cartels.
A wide range of experts on the laws governing the use of lethal force say US strikes at sea are illegal and describe them as murder. They say the government has not proven the existence of an armed conflict between the United States and Venezuela.
As Trump considers new measures against Maduro, some Latin American experts have long expressed doubts about possible significant motives aimed at regime change, saying they reflect mistakes made in Iraq that led to years of long war. The Iraqi quagmire has raised concerns that foreign politicians might promote exaggerated narratives to convince the United States to oust leaders of other countries.
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John D. said: Feeley, former US ambassador to Panama: “It’s time to invoke the ghost of Ahmed Chalabi,” referring to the Iraqi politician who played a key role in defending the US invasion of Iraq by providing false information that Saddam Hussein’s regime possessed weapons of mass destruction and operational links to Al Qaeda.
Feeley, who worked for then-Secretary of State Colin Powell in the run-up to the Iraq War, said he felt like he was watching similar events unfold. He questioned whether Trump administration officials were relying on questionable information about Maduro’s operational control over drug trafficking and the ease with which he could be ousted.
– It’s unbelievable how these people can be so stupid that they can’t read their history and realize that they are heading towards the same destination, said Fili.
In response, a White House official stated that Maduro’s government was a terrorist drug cartel and that Maduro was not a legitimate president.
Maria Corina has emerged as the most prominent figure in Venezuela to defend the hypothesis that Maduro is a cartel leader.
– We all know that the head of the Tren de Aragua is Maduro – she said in an interview with the president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr. – that the regime created, promoted and financed the Tren de Aragua.
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Through a spokesperson, Maria Corina declined repeated requests for comment on this story. In an interview with the New York Times last year, she described Maduro’s ouster as a matter of “hemispheric security” and therefore of international importance.
Among Venezuelans who oppose Maduro, there are at least some who question certain aspects of his arguments.
Henrique Capriles, an opposition figure, former governor and presidential candidate who has been sidelined in recent years, said in an interview that although the Tren de Aragua is a dangerous gang, the idea of Maduro controlling it amounts to “science fiction.”
Capriles, who ran and lost to Maduro in 2013, was banned from running for public office, a ban that was lifted in 2025. His critics accuse him of colluding with the government after he decided to participate in rigged elections for the National Assembly.
For many years, Venezuelan opposition leaders have often claimed that Maduro organized a large-scale drug trafficking organization. Experts say there is no doubt that smuggling is closely linked to the Venezuelan government. Many senior officials who broke with the regime accused senior leaders of profiting from drug trafficking.
– In our case, the cartel is the state – said David Smolansky, a Venezuelan politician who represents María Corina in Washington, in an interview.
In 2020, during Trump’s first term, the Justice Department indicted Maduro and other Venezuelan officials on drug trafficking charges, accusing them of trying to “flood the United States with cocaine.” He specifically mentioned the Cartel de los Soles, describing it as a drug trafficking group led by Maduro.
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These allegations have not yet been proven in American courts, but the Trump administration authorities gave new impetus to this accusation this year, doubling the reward for Maduro’s arrest to $50 million (about 266 million Brazilian reals).
But experts who have analyzed drug trafficking in Venezuela for decades say the Cartel de los Soles is not a literal organization, but rather shorthand for drug trafficking in the armed forces. This phenomenon is not limited to Venezuela, but also affects democratic and authoritarian countries in the Americas.
The drugs pass through Venezuela, but according to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), less than 10% of the cocaine that reaches the United States from South America passes through Venezuela. Mexico, not Venezuela, produces fentanyl, the leading cause of overdose deaths in the United States.
Regarding the Tren de Aragua movement, drug trafficking experts indicate that it originated in a prison in the Venezuelan state of Aragua, and that US intelligence agencies published, last February, information indicating that the group is not under the control of the Venezuelan government. Their leader is believed to be Hector Rostenford Guerrero Flores, who escaped from prison.
Latin American countries, including Argentina, Ecuador, Peru and Paraguay, recently joined the United States in designating the Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization, which some Venezuelan opposition leaders point to as a strengthening of their arguments against Maduro.
Smolansky said these designations mean that the Maduro regime is now like the Taliban, the only government that fully exercises authority and is recognized as a terrorist organization.
In response to a question about evidence indicating that Maduro leads two drug cartels, he replied:
– This may be news to citizens of the United States or other countries in the region, but Venezuelans have been suffering from this for more than 20 years.
Many critics of these claims share with the Venezuelan opposition a disdain for Maduro, whose authoritarian regime has plunged Venezuela into one of the worst economic crises in modern history.
When the collapse led to a mass exodus from the country, the Tren de Aragua also expanded into several countries in the Americas, often exploiting other Venezuelan migrants and engaging in extortion, human smuggling, and small-scale drug trafficking.
However, no evidence has been found that Tren de Aragua is involved in cross-border drug trafficking, according to Insight Crime, a research group focused on organized crime.
But María Corina continued to insist on her statements about Maduro and drugs.
– Everyone knows that today Venezuela is the main channel for cocaine and that this business is controlled by Maduro – he told CNN. -The regime transformed the Cartel de los Soles into one of the most powerful criminal structures on the entire continent as well as on other continents.
The origin of the use of the term cartel de los Soles to describe illegal military activities goes back long before Maduro’s ascension to the presidency in 2013. The term gained momentum after the 1993 scandal, when the CIA collaborated with the Venezuelan military to send a ton of cocaine to the United States in an attempt to infiltrate Colombian cartels.
Maria Corina’s recent focus on false claims that Venezuelans rigged the US election — an argument used by Trump supporters to falsely claim that he won the 2020 election — has sparked accusations that she is spreading misinformation to curry favor with the Trump administration.
“It’s saying that our problem is actually your problem, because it’s a national security issue,” said David Smiled, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University. -This could fit current agendas in Washington and give greater importance to citizens who are not experts on Venezuela.