On the afternoon of November 27, 2024, hundreds of young people rode Scooters They returned to the devastated suburbs of Beirut, raising the yellow flag of the Lebanese Hezbollah militia and making a victory gesture. The ceasefire, which entered into force minutes ago, brought an end to the conflict with Israel that the movement began on October 8, 2023, when Israeli forces attacked, “in solidarity” with the attack launched by Hamas from Gaza. But 12 months later, the Israeli army continues to attack Lebanon daily due to the militias’ refusal to hand over their weapons, as required by the agreement. The Lebanese authorities, who want to disarm Hezbollah through a negotiated process led by Beirut, lack the tools to do so on their own and halt Israeli hostilities.
In view of the Israeli escalation, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam issued an ultimatum. “We are in a unilateral war of attrition by Israel,” he said on Tuesday. On the other side of the dividing line, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on Wednesday that “there will be no calm in Beirut as long as Israel’s security is not guaranteed,” which he links to the disappearance of Hezbollah’s armed wing. “Lebanon needs time,” says Nadim Houry, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, commenting on Israel’s military insistence. He added, “Hezbollah has been arming itself since the 1980s. You cannot undo 40 years overnight.”
On Sunday, Israeli forces killed the second man in the Shiite organization during a bombing in the vicinity of Beirut, the first attack of its kind during a full year of the truce. Last week, Israel bombed a Palestinian refugee camp on Lebanese territory, killing 13 civilians – 11 of them minors – according to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, which is calling for an investigation into a possible violation of international humanitarian law.
Since the start of the ceasefire, the Lebanese army has recorded more than 5,000 Israeli violations in incidents that included controlling the occupied territories and launching bombings that killed 330 people, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. The United Nations Commissioner indicates that at least 127 of them are civilians. Israel covers all these measures under the terms of the truce, claiming that they prevent the re-arming of Hezbollah.
The truce signed in November 2024 – which came after the Israeli attack that killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon – required Israel to completely withdraw within 60 days from Lebanese territory – something it did not adhere to – as it entered a few kilometers away. In Lebanon, the agreement calls for the authorities to control the area south of the Litani River – about 30 kilometers from the border with Israel – and remove Hezbollah’s military capabilities in that area. The agreement forces the Shiite militia to withdraw north of the Litani in a process that culminated in the complete disarmament of the group, which was established in 1982 as a response to a previous Israeli occupation.
The Government of Lebanon has done its part. In an unprecedented decision, the executive branch ordered the army in August to develop a plan to achieve an arms monopoly by the end of 2025. Chief of the General Staff, Rudolf Heikal, presented a project in September consisting of five phases, the first of which would eliminate Hezbollah’s capabilities south of the Litani River in three months. In mid-October, US Central Command praised Lebanese efforts to dismantle militias in the south, as the removal of 10,000 missiles, 400 missiles, and 205,000 explosive devices was documented.
Beirut is in the crosshairs
The good work done by the Lebanese army does not satisfy Israel. Beirut asserts that the continued Israeli action in Lebanon prevents it from expanding its control on the ground and obtaining the time and margin necessary to advance a national process dealing with the disarmament of the militias. In this case, your possibilities are limited. “None of the options on the table in Beirut are favourable,” Houry laments. “Israel wants to push the army into a confrontation with Hezbollah. The other scenario is for it to remain a target of Israeli attacks that prevent the return of residents to the south of the country.”
“This is the big question,” says Najat Saliba, a member of the Change Bloc in the Lebanese Parliament. “The government is in the middle of Hezbollah and Israel, without a position of influence to demand that the international community put pressure on the Israeli side, and thus the militia was able to undermine the Lebanese executive authority to emerge stronger.” The MP adds that the armed organization “opposes the government’s decisions,” in reference to disarmament, denouncing that the organization “claims to protect Lebanese sovereignty while the facts say otherwise.”
Houry believes that the starting point for moving toward monopolizing arms in the hands of the state is not the content of the truce with Israel, but rather the approval of this goal in the Lebanese Council of Ministers. He points out that he accepted the Israeli request, “This is a Lebanese demand.” “There was a majority for the state’s arms monopoly before October 2023 (when Lebanon entered the war), and now it has become higher.”
The expert defends a process that “Lebanon cannot do alone, but it will be part of it.” The plan begins with an agreement with Hezbollah so that the militia stops using its offensive weapons, with guarantees from Iran and Arab countries for this. Israel, for its part, will completely withdraw from Lebanon. Then, a gradual process with clear objectives will be defined through which Lebanon’s capabilities and sovereignty will be strengthened, and the almost failed state will be rebuilt.
This move would allow Beirut to have “cards in hand to convince the Shiite community,” where Hezbollah has followers, “to join the state reconstruction project.” For all this, Houry says, Lebanon needs “time” that will not exist unless regional countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar or Egypt come up with a formula that convinces the United States to pressure the Israeli government. “The Lebanese president and prime minister have already asked the Israeli authorities to start negotiations,” Houry says. “What more does Israel want?”