JP Morgan published its energy forecasts for 2026 and 2027 and predicted a period dominated by the continued increase in the global supply of crude oil, and the strengthening of projects outside And unification Oil shale As one of the most dynamic sectors. In this context, the Bank highlighted the role of… Argentina He mentioned that Dead cow It has become one of the fastest growing regions in the world. The report indicated that the Argentinean was invited “It has emerged as a new dynamic interface: scalable, low-cost and increasingly integrated with export infrastructure.”. Over the next two years, the entity expects annual increases of between 120,000 and 150,000 barrels per day in the country’s total production, driven by strong oil. Oil shale Neuquen.
The report analyzed the Argentine operation within an international scenario Abundant supplies. JPMorgan appreciated this Global demand will rise by 0.9 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.2 million barrels per day in 2027.While supply will increase at a faster rate in various regions. The document highlighted the enhancement of marine production in Brazil and Guyana, in addition to the continuity of marine production Oil shale Whether in the United States or outside this country. Under this scenario, the bank expected this The global surplus could reach 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026This will put pressure on Brent crude prices and take crude oil to values below $60 next year and towards the $40 region in 2027.
JPMorgan highlighted the major non-OPEC+ producers and identified that Brazil, Guyana, the United States, Canada, Norway and Argentina will form the core of conventional and unconventional growth outside the cartel. Regarding the Argentine case, the Bank highlighted that the regulatory policy implemented by management Javier Miley, His recent electoral victory has changed the sectoral horizon and opened an upward trend in production. The report indicated that the country witnessed “Annual growth from 120 thousand to 150 thousand barrels per day.” After government reforms, with a continuous rise in Dead cow This is due to rock quality, competitive costs and productivity improvements.
According to the analysis, Daily production at Vaca Muerta reached 551 thousand barrels in September And it can exceeding one million barrels per day within five years. The report specified that most of these quantities would be destined for export, a process enabled by the launch of a new 350-mile pipeline and the development of a dedicated terminal in Vaca Muerta Sur. JPMorgan highlighted that these developments are progressing “Extraordinary vision” About the future availability of unconventional barrels from the Neuquén Basin.
The expansion is not limited to increasing wells and production, but also includes a program to expand transportation infrastructure. The report identified two main developments: Refined NorthThe company, which aims to connect areas in northern Vaca Muerta and expand crude oil evacuation points, plans to begin operations at the end of 2026 with an initial capacity of 220,000 barrels per day that will increase to 300,000 barrels, then to 500,000 barrels later. The second project is the system Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS)Led by YPF, which will transport up to 550,000 barrels per day to the deepwater terminal in Punta Colorada. The text explained that VMOS will start operating at 180,000 barrels per day in 2026, will reach 380,000 in March 2027, and will reach full capacity in the middle of the same year.
By adding both systems, evacuation capacity can be increased To 1.3 million barrels per dayAnd the formation of an export corridor of similar size to integrated regions in the global market. This shift will significantly modify the structure of the domestic oil market, allowing for sustained growth in volume. No internal bottlenecks. According to the report, the quantities Oil shale It will not only replace the decline in mature conventional fields, but will overcome this decline and provide net growth in total Argentine supply during the second half of the decade.
The analysis assessed the global context in which the Argentine expansion would be included. JPMorgan warned that the post-pandemic return to normal in international demand has already ended and that the increase in consumption observed between 2021 and 2024 was a response to an atypical cycle. By 2025, the bank expects an increase of just 0.9 million barrels per day, due to an industrial slowdown, electricity restrictions in China and new tariff rules. However, JPMorgan expects that 2026-2027 could provide just that Extra payment Due to the expected decline in global prices. The report highlights that lower Brent values will act as a demand stimulant, an effect that may occur Adding half a million barrels per day in 2027.
The document also addressed geopolitical tensions that will affect the balance of supply and demand. He noted that the sharp decline in prices may prompt the United States to tighten sanctions on Russia and Iran, increasing supply risks. Moreover, be warned Russia faces extraction, transportation, and tax costs approaching $42 per barrelIt is a threshold at which margins turn negative if Brent crude falls below that value, which could lead to involuntary cuts in production. JP Morgan estimated that with the Brent price reaching $49 by the end of 2026, non-OPEC producers will face unplanned cuts of between 1 million and 1.3 million barrels per day. The bank also warned that falling prices could affect areas such as Colombia, Ecuador And to a sector American oil shale. in Argentina, Vaca Muerta offers a break-even point of US$45 to US$55Therefore, a decline in the price of crude oil would limit new drilling and completion operations.
The report also discussed the development of stocks. According to JP Morgan, Global inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels per day this yeardriven by increased crude oil transit and inventories in China. The bank stressed that China continues to accumulate strategic and commercial reserves, a prospect favored by lower prices, and that this process could increase Chinese inventories. To 1.5 billion barrels in 2026.
In this international scenario of high supply, inventory build-up and price pressures, JPMorgan identified Argentina’s Sustainable Development Plan. combination of productivity Oil shaleInfrastructure expansion and organizational progress Outline a strong growth profile. The report stressed this Dead cow It has established itself as one of the deposits Tie It is more competitive outside the US, where operators use multiple well drilling techniques and side branches larger than three kilometres. The entity concluded that this process generated a more integrated oil industry, with greater predictability of quantities and costs With its increasing weight in the global supply of crude oil from outside OPEC+.