The arrest of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has caused a division in the way the former president’s family and right-wing leaders view the definition of the name to represent the political sphere in next year’s elections. There is a struggle at stake between maintaining the clan character and “liberating” other cadres, especially conservatives interested in running for president. They, although thinking differently, are careful not to anger Bolsonaro’s sons, who are convicted and imprisoned for the attempted coup.
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Former First Lady Michelle and Federal Representative Eduardo presented themselves as potential candidates, while Senator Flavio began to be included in the party, although he publicly denied his intention. Rio Councilman Carlos posted on Wednesday that this is not the time to discuss presidential succession “while the greatest political absurdities are piled up against the greatest leader in the country.”
Between Saturday night and Monday morning, the clan organized an operation to prevent the former president’s moment of weakness from opening the way for a repositioning that it considered premature. The order, made clear in public messages and reiterated in private conversations, was to freeze any discussion around 2026.
If Carlos adopted a harsher tone in public, Flavio took on the role of spokesman in private conversations. Since Saturday, according to allies, the senator has reiterated that this is not the right time to talk about 2026. The movement seeks to protect his father’s political capital and prevent outside names from seizing it. When asked, he confirmed his point of view:
We have many competitive candidates, if not President Bolsonaro. Let us leave it to hear it from President Bolsonaro, whenever he sees fit.
Flavio, responsible for calling for the “vigil” that was one of the reasons that led to his father’s preventive arrest, became the former president’s spokesman after his arrest, causing discomfort in the family. At a Liberal Party meeting on Monday, in which he, Michel and his brothers Carlos and Jair Renan participated, the former first lady complained that she had not been consulted by Bolsonaro’s eldest son, because until that moment she had been the only one with her husband in prison.
Participants described the meeting as the most tense in the party since 2022. Michelle arrived accompanied by close advisers and was clearly shaken. During the meeting, he asked for the floor to make an appeal similar to that of his stepsons: that no one should deal with the elections yet and that the focus be exclusively on Bolsonaro’s legal moment. The former first lady, who suffered two bouts of crying, said that raising the discussion would mean depriving her husband of his role at a time when the family is trying to show unity.
Among the referees tipped to seize the property – Tarcisio de Freitas (SP), Ronaldo Caedo (GO), Ratinho Junior (PR) and Romeo Zema (MG) – the atmosphere was cautious. All have publicly defended Bolsonaro, avoiding any statement that could be interpreted as an advance on the former president’s leadership, despite concerns about setting the scenario. According to one of Tarcisio’s interlocutors, this is the time “not to anger the family.”
On Wednesday, the governor of Sao Paulo state said again that he will be a candidate for re-election in the state. He also stated that he received Bolsonaro’s arrest “with great sadness” and that he trusted his ally’s innocence.
– I always say that I am running for re-election, and that I am interested in staying in São Paulo. I often answer the same thing, and people don’t seem to believe me, but I’m very focused on my work, on long-term projects – he says.
Tarcisio, the main candidate to assume the presidential mission from the right, does not welcome the possibility of having a vice president bearing the title of Bolsonaro, if the dispute actually enters, but he cannot express this publicly. According to GLOBO columnist Lauro Jardim, his preferred name to participate in the ticket is his colleague from Minas Gerais, Romeo Zema (Novo).
The Bolsonaro family is trying to regain the forefront of right-wing agendas after a period in which rulers did not rely much on the clan to obstruct Lula’s government with a public security agenda. In the wake of the deadliest operation in the country’s history, which left 122 people dead in Rio, leaders of populous states have been using the issue to reunite rhetoric, which has been out of sync for months in the face of US tariffs and Labor’s rebound in the polls.
The leaders of the People’s Party, the Republicans and the Brazilian Union estimate that the freeze in the debate on the presidential candidacy is the result of a leadership dispute that tends to intensify in the coming months. The reading is that the family is trying to prevent Bolsonarianism from becoming a broader and decentralized movement, which would reduce its decision-making ability.
However, for Centrão, there is one peaceful point: the right will not be reorganized without Bolsonaro – even in prison. The head of the People’s Party, Senator Ciro Nogueira (PI), sums up this perception.
The first criterion for our support in 2026 is a commitment to granting amnesty to Bolsonaro – although research shows that his amnesty agenda is unpopular.