Flavio Bolsonaro has spent the past few days denying that he will be a presidential candidate in 2026. “My name is not on the table,” he told reporters on Monday, following the scenario his father wants for this moment when he has just begun serving his 27-year-and-three-month sentence for his conviction in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in the coup plot.
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But in private conversations, the tone varies. Since last week, when his brother Eduardo began describing him as a presidential candidate online, the senator has begun speaking openly about the possibility. He told one of his close interlocutors that “if he wanted his father, he would sacrifice” his candidacy for Planalto.
Why would running for president be a “sacrifice” for Flavio, as he himself defines the hypothesis that has been circulating again since Saturday? Those around him point to the following arguments: 1) The senator will abandon his re-election in Rio in favor of a campaign with uncertain results against Lula. 2) During the presidential campaign, there will be a return of a long news story involving Rachadinha, the financial operations of his chocolate shop and the purchase of a million-dollar mansion in Brasilia; 3) The memory that remains fresh in his mind about the complexity of the election campaign for mayor of Rio in 2016 was the only one in which a family member other than Jair Bolsonaro attempted. The father participated in the campaign from its beginning to its end, a fact that was embodied on the day he prevented the doctor and candidate at the time, Jandira Feghali, from treating Flavio when he felt ill during one of the debates, simply because the representative was a member of the PCdoB.
So, why did Flavio allow the blue fly to bite him and welcome the trip to Planalto? Your environment also has the answers. 1) What is more important than his re-election as senator for Rio is to uphold his father’s legacy as a great leader of the Brazilian right, even if that is after his defeat to Lula. 2) Throughout his father’s government, Flavio has managed to overturn investigations into his name in the judiciary, and can use this certificate of suitability against possible attacks by the PT in the campaign. 3) Flavio in 2025 is not the same as in 2016, he has changed in his levels, whether in relation to Central politicians or through a greater ability to communicate. Furthermore, an incarcerated father will be less able to provide input on the progress of the campaign.
On the subject of dosimetry, Flavio’s behind-the-scenes statements are also very different from Flavio’s statements to the press. Although he insists on the topic of amnesty when giving interviews, the senator already admits that the best path to justice is to support the dosimetry reported by MP Paulinho da Forsa. According to the text being drafted, Bolsonaro’s sentences will be reduced from 7 to 11 years, and the period of the closed regime to about two years.