The business world views the negotiating momentum you have gained with mild enthusiasm Libertarian management It waits with the expectation that all the screen that was displayed will appear Diego Santilli It starts turning into facts. However, some leaders cannot help but wonder what would have happened if the ruling party had maintained this call in the months leading up to O-26. Could a less hostile stance toward the provincial leaders’ claims have helped ease tensions in the economy?
Although he Counterfactual thinking It is more common for historians that taking the time to analyze “what would have happened if” another path had been chosen can help understand what is to come. Investors are interested in understanding why today, faced with the same claim, they are asking: government You can give a different answer than the negative one you gave months ago.
Let’s go back to the middle of the year. After the victory achieved by the People’s Liberation Army in the Buenos Aires region in June Miley and Louis Caputo It appears well since the first review of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund, which takes into account compliance with the fiscal target, easing the reserve accumulation target, and gives the green light for financial reform. Monetary decisions To contain inflation. Politically, the negotiating front embodied by Santiago Caputo was relegated to second place due to the extreme strategy of Karina Miley Not waiving nominations to the Council of Governorate Lists.
In this scenario, President W Minister of Economy They were convinced that there was no need to give up on two goals: easing financial accounts and containing the dollar as it is the focus of the anti-inflation strategy. And in his conversations with those around him. the following This was justified with this phrase: “Governments that devalue the currency lose elections, not those that raise interest rates.”
In the following weeks the plan did not work as expected: Official It only succeeded in expanding the list of skeptics, critics and enemies. He lost the Buenos Aires elections because of questions about him Low sensitivity Social (pensioners, disabled, public education) and keeping inflation “stable” at the level of approximately 2% did not bring political benefits. What was initially a higher goal, to the point of justifying A Monetary pressure Unprecedented, lost value.
In it Counter analysis We should note something that was unexpected: uncertainty helped. It activated US aid and allowed the ruling party to take a role in the campaign. Fear of a calamity Larger size ended up being a relevant factor in Miley’s 26-0 boost.
With all this background, what the current change in official position indicates is that a strong defense of… surplus It will no longer be the argument that will obstruct the agreements. Now the political equation calls for financial “balance.” Showing the fiscal deficit close to zero would be sufficient. he International Monetary Fund It’s demanding but not extreme.
The staff also cares about that Repairs Pending (they were already committed last June). The United States calls for the ability to predict how things will turn out Investors And the Argentinian cost is reasonable. For Millie, adapting to this consensus is not a problem. On the contrary, its practical side reveals more Laws And fewer veto power. The only priority will be budget. For others, the arrangement of factors will not change the product.
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