the Argentine bonds They show good gains in November’s accumulated value and contrast with the stock’s losses. Positive changes are occurring in all sovereign fixed income, but it is worth noting that this time peso-denominated bonds prevail over those denominated in foreign currency and the market estimates that it is possible that they will continue to lead the domestic debt securities sector in the future.
The PPI research team appreciates this Dollar bonds are heading towards closing November with “negligible” gains.about 0.9% on global average and 0.5% on Bonares average. Meanwhile, in cumulative value for the month, peso bonds show dollar gains of about 9% in average CERs, about 9% in dual instruments and 7% in fixed-rate instruments.
In the curve of certified emission reduction rates, which benefited most this month from fixed income in pesos, gains measured in dollars range between 8% and 14%. In double bonds, it ranges between 8% and 9%. In cases with a fixed rate, between 7% and 7.5%. On the other hand, among dollar addresses, the global currencies that advanced the most do so by 2% and Bonaris by 1%. But in the equities sector, the Merval index recorded a decline of more than 6% in dollars at the CCL exchange rate.
The impact of the dollar and interest rates
The Producer Price Index confirms that Relative stability Which exchange rate works this month is driven by Strategy returns in pesos measured in US currency. However, he explains that it is not only the effect of the exchange rate, but also the pressure on interest rates, which in recent weeks has given a boost to the prices of peso debt securities.
“Available liquidity and better expectations have pushed interest rates lower in recent weeks, but this process is about to be exhausted because there is no longer a stock of pesos left to re-liquefy. Even seasonal demand for pesos in December could put upward pressure on interest rates,” he adds.
According to the stock broker, Implicit inflation rates in peso bonds continue to remain at relatively low levelsFor this reason, he confirms that the CER sector (which follows the evolution of the economy’s price index) will remain the most profitable within fixed income in pesos and will exceed the gains of the fixed rate sector for short-term strategies.
Dollar bonds versus peso bonds
Felix Marenco, a financial advisor at Cocos Gold, leans toward peso bonds, which is what he allocates to them. High odds of dollar gainsBut in the medium or long term (end of 2026), in the context of improvements in the Argentine macroeconomy. On the other hand, although there are potential gains in dollar sovereign debt, he argues that with current yields there is less attractiveness to taking risks.
“Next year will be very good in terms of inflation and economic activity. The peso will be in demand again and the government aims to re-monetize the economy. Today it looks attractive to have peso bonds maturing at the end of 2026, at a nominal rate of just over 30% per annum, while inflation is on its way to less than 1.5% per month and may fall further during the year,” Marenco confirms. iProfessional.
Marinko emphasizes that if the investor believes in the government’s economic project, that is The exchange system will keep the domain updated similar to the current one Or a little higher, you might find it tempting to put yourself in peso bonds that expire at the end of next year. He highlights that with much higher than expected rates of inflation and the exchange rate near the top of the range, “there is little possibility that these bonds will not generate earnings in dollars.”
“Let’s remember that December is a month with a seasonal increase in demand for the peso, which leads to an appreciation of the currency. This appreciation works in our favor and setting interest rates during that month would be a good strategy. If we believe that the macro scenario for Argentina will be positive next year, it would be good to enter into peso bonds that will last until the end of 2026, with this exchange rate near $1,500, and these rates remain high in the face of inflation that will continue to fall.” Highlights.
At the same time, he wonders whether dollar debt securities, which yield about 10%, are justified The direction in the portfolio taking into account the relationship between risk and return. Although he stressed that the Argentine context is now positive, there are still many challenges ahead, such as the real accumulation of reserves requested by investors and the process of buying back short securities that has been announced and nothing concrete has yet emerged in this regard.
For their part, Clave Bursátil analysts are optimistic about fixed income in dollars and pesos. In the dollar segment, they expect gains of up to 13% in mid-range securities, but they will be achieved when Argentina is able to sufficiently reduce country risks, to an area of 420 basis points, which will enable a return to the international debt market to refinance maturities in foreign currency.
In the peso sector, which also It is considered attractive given the profits measured in dollarsHe suggested caution in the short term due to potential fluctuations in the exchange rate that “eats” expected profits. Therefore, they prefer to bet on medium- and long-term peso securities, such as those maturing in the second half of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027, because they have implied rates that can absorb potential exchange rate pressures and still generate profits in dollars.