A study by European researchers revealed that life expectancy, although continuing to grow, is slowing down in rich countries. According to the research, published in August in the journal PNAS, longevity is approaching a plateau — and no generation born between 1939 and 2000 is expected to reach a median lifespan of 100 years, as previously thought.
This does not mean a decrease in life expectancy, but rather its growth. The scientists analyzed mortality data from 23 high-income countries and used six statistical methods to predict longevity trends in cohorts of surviving annual generations.
As a result, they found that the increase in life expectancy is getting smaller every year: since the 1990s, it has been no more than two months compared to the previous year, which is only 30% of what was recorded per generation at the beginning of the 20th century.
“This study was very ambitious because it took into account estimates from contemporary cohorts and with a large volume of data,” says geriatrician Erika Satomi, from Einstein Israelita Hospital. “This provides us with direction on where we should look to intervene and invest as a society to extend life and well-being.”
“However, we have to look at these data carefully, as the research was conducted on populations from very developed countries and far from the Brazilian context,” he continues.
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The work shows that in 1900, a person could expect to live on average 62 years, a record for that period that was gradually extended until 1938, the year in which baby boomers were already expected to reach 80 years of age. However, the pace of this increase in life expectancy has since been decreasing and growing slowly. He is expected to remain between 85 and 90 years old.
Following the pace at the beginning of the century, those born in 1980 onwards will have a life expectancy of 100 years. But in practice, mathematical models reveal that there is no evidence for this – even the most recent generations, from the 21st century, are not expected to reach this age.
“This growth at the beginning of the century was mainly due to an improvement in infant mortality, with increased access to health care, new medicines and basic sanitation. In many countries, especially those with high income as noted in the study, the ceiling in access to these services has already been reached, which is why the effects are declining. In Brazil, we still have room for improvement,” Satomi analyzes.
Although life expectancy is unlikely to reach 100 years, it is becoming more common for isolated cases to reach this mark. “Projections are reference population data, but the reality of individuals is very different. Most of my patients have passed the average of their generation. It is possible to get there, healthy and independent, and these are the focuses of anti-geriatric treatment. No one wants to live longer if they do not have a good quality of life,” notes the geriatrician.
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Exercises that strengthen bones and muscles are essential to avoid diseases and other health problems. In addition to improving balance, exercising at least twice a week is one of the secrets to longer life expectancy and aging better.
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A study conducted by researchers at Tohoku University in Japan showed that 30 to 60 minutes of muscle-strengthening exercises per week are sufficient.
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According to the research results, the risk of premature death among people who move is between 10% and 17% lower than the risk of death among sedentary people.
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Exercises that use your body weight, such as weight training and crossfit, are some recommendations. In addition, activities such as tai chi and yoga are recommended to strengthen bones and muscles.
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Keeping the body active also helps improve menopausal and post-operative outcomes and can help prevent bone fractures, for example. In addition, it helps increase energy and improve mood and sleep.
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According to experts, people who exercise for at least half an hour a week show a reduced risk of death, heart disease and cancer. One hour per week of muscle-strengthening activities has also been linked to a lower risk of diabetes.
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Muscle and bone mass in the human body reaches its peak before the age of thirty. From this age onwards, natural decline begins, meaning that individuals who start exercising at an early age will have increased bone and muscle strength throughout their lives.
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People who exercise after the age of 30 reduce the body’s natural loss, are able to maintain bone and muscle strength and live a much better life.
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New focus on aging well
Given that infant mortality is already under control in the countries surveyed, the study suggests that the new frontier for increasing life expectancy will be the fight against age-related diseases, such as cancer, coronary heart disease and neurodegenerative diseases. However, meeting this challenge may be more difficult, as many actions to prevent these diseases rely on individual behaviors rather than collective actions.
“Of course, there is a way to intervene to facilitate examinations or improve access to a healthy diet, but what we have in old age is a reflection of a series of life behaviors that cannot be changed,” says the doctor. “Our focus is on what we can do in the present to improve the future, and many times, this will depend on the individual, eating better, doing physical activities, among other precautions.”
Universal access to these practices among older people can significantly improve their quality of life, keeping them independent and productive even after the age of eighty.
“There is a lot of wear and tear on the body during this period, but if we have a 65-year-old patient who smokes and is obese and an 85-year-old patient who is active and is an athlete, the older patient is often healthier and has better prognoses than the younger one. The answer seems to be in the accumulation of good things we do for ourselves,” Erika Satomi points out.
In the clinic, there is no shortage of patients who declare that they dream of exceeding expectations and achieving a century of existence. “Round dates have a golden touch, right? A few years ago, the dream of patients was to reach 90, and now I see that the goal has been extended to 100. It is an impressive number, even because of the extra number, and I am happy to see more people reaching this number,” concludes the Einstein specialist.
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