Congress on Thursday rejected the stabilization path (which includes deficit limits for departments) proposed by the government until 2028. A defeat that was expected in Moncloa. but, A bad omen for the future of the state’s public budgets. It makes them, in fact, an illusion.
Junts makes good on its threat and its decision to veto the fiscal track (and other regulations) after breaking with the PSOE a few weeks ago is upheld. This is the position that the Istiqlal Party will adhere to The draft accounts when it reaches the House of Representatives.
To these opposing voices we must add a missing voice: Jose Luis Abalos. The former right-hand man of Pedro Sánchez, who was investigated for serious corruption crimes, was voting in favor of laws and regulations introduced by the Socialists despite being in the mixed group, after being expelled from the PSOE.
Which he will not be able to do after the Supreme Court ordered his preventive detention in the Soto del Real prison due to the “extreme” risk of escape.
The loss of these seats was confirmed in Thursday’s vote. The majority of representatives of the House of Representatives (composed of the People’s Party, Vox, Gents and UPN) rejected the deficit limits proposed by the government. A vote in which Podemos and Kompromes abstained, and only the Socialist Workers’ Party, SUMAR, the European Reform Party, Bildou, BNV, PNG and the Communist Party voted in favor.
The Budget Stabilization Law obligates the executive authority to present the stabilization path again within less than a month. The Ministry of Finance has already announced that it does not intend to change its proposal (which includes a 0.1% deficit for autonomous regions, although the majority demanded at least 0.2%). A new rejection by Congress is assumed.
Despite this, the government will continue with the 2026 budget (which, by the way, it did not do in the 2025 budget). As this newspaper has already reported, the Executive confirms that Congress’s rejection of the fiscal track will not stop the preparation of accounts and the public deficit included in the stabilization program sent to Brussels will be implemented: A limit of 2.1 of GDP overall.
Regions will not be able to run any deficits to increase their public spending, as they will have to respect the budget balance. This means, They will have to remain at zero deficit.
Thus, the Ministry of Finance estimates that it will present the draft budget (enlarged, with an 8.5% increase in spending capacity) during the first quarter of the year, most likely in February. and He is expected to face a decisive vote in Congress between April and May.
This is a vote whose success appears to be an illusion, given the calculations of the House of Representatives. This is what we also see in the government. They admit that they have everything to lose in voting on the budget.
But sources in the executive authority confirm that if the accounts are rejected, they will resubmit them again. They trust that A “Window of opportunity” Which makes her approval enforceable. Something that can only happen if Junts changes his location.
In an attempt to soften up Puigdemont’s supporters, Vice President María Jesús Montero will introduce the idea of autonomous communities Proposal to reform regional finance Which will then be submitted to Congress.
A regional financing model committed to by the First Vice President More tax transfers to the regions, without harming them and taking into account their peculiarities. He is even considering introducing rankings in the distribution of funds.
A third ingredient is added to this cocktail: – Regional debt reliefwhich will also be processed in Congress around those dates.
Montero will therefore face a notable challenge during the first half of 2026: addressing three regulations that are key to the country’s economic fabric and of particular importance to the regions. A legislative maelstrom arrives at the gates of the new 2026 electoral cycle, with elections being held in Castile, León and Andalusia before July..
All of these projects will keep María Jesús Montero herself in the spotlight and constantly on display. And he will do so at a very convenient time for his political aspirations. Because she will compete for the presidency of the Andalusian Military Council as a candidate for the Socialist Workers Party. As novelist Terry Pratchett, creator of the saga, says Disc world“Interesting times” are coming.