The business confidence index (ICEC) rose by 3.1% in November compared to October, reaching 99.2 points, while the household consumption intention index rose by 0.5%, reaching 101.6 points. Both indicators reached their highest levels since August, according to data from the Confederation Nationale de Trading (CNC). José Roberto Tadros, president of the CNC-Sesc-Senac system, says the increase in confidence in November is specific and linked to Black Friday and year-end shopping and does not in itself reflect the slowdown observed throughout the year. By analyzing merchant and consumer indicators, the entity expects that Black Friday will generate R$5.4 billion, 2.4% higher than the amount recorded in 2024, representing a point of moderate optimism.
- Unemployment: Understand how increased income and labor shortages change the pace of the labor market
- analysis: Congress creates advantages for larger debtor states
– Despite the secrecy and precision, in the midst of a year of declining indicators, this correspondence between consumption forecasts and the preparation of the November trade show shows that, even in a difficult economic scenario, the promotional date is able to mobilize both the market and consumers – says Tadros.
Fabio Bentis, chief economist at CNC, highlights that the still-high Selic rate and high debt levels continue to limit consumption and investment expectations. Investment intentions, although back in optimism territory – with 100.1 points and a 0.7% increase in the month – accumulated a 3.4% decline compared to the previous year. This situation indicates that entrepreneurs remain cautious about allocating capital for expansion, even with the monthly improvement expected for November.
- Understands: The alignment of inflation expectations leads to a decrease in the uncertainty index of the FGV
Despite the Black Friday boost, the CEC highlights that merchant confidence registered a decline of 8.1% compared to November 2024. Household purchase intentions fell by 0.8% on the same comparison basis.
The CNC survey shows that it was entrepreneurs in the supermarket, pharmacy and cosmetics store sectors who recorded the largest increase in confidence in November, with an increase of 4.5%. Despite this, the sector index remains pessimistic at 95 points – 6.7% below the level of November last year. The clothing, shoes, fabrics and accessories sector returned to the optimistic range with 100.7 points and an increase of 2% this month.