Magda Chamberriard, president of Petrobras, highlighted concerns about the price of oil when justifying the company’s new business plan. Yesterday, the state-owned company announced that it will invest US$109 billion (or R$583.1 billion based on the exchange rate of R$5.35) from 2026 to 2030 in its new business plan. The value represents a decrease of approximately 2% in relation to the program amounting to US$111 billion (R$593.85 billion) for the years 2025 to 2029.
Of the US$109 billion expected for the next five years, US$91 billion (R$486.8 billion) correspond to projects already scheduled for implementation, of which US$10 billion are still dependent on budget confirmation and financial capacity analysis. In addition, another $18 billion (R$96.3 billion) has been allocated in the so-called evaluation portfolio.
– Challenges are increasing. We are in an unstable world. The price of oil fluctuates. The price of a barrel has fallen by $20 since last year. This means that today, in November, we have 75% of the value of Brent, which is equivalent to us, compared to the beginning of 2024. For this reason, we are planning measures to rationalize and simplify projects. We take projects back to the drawing board, and work to optimize costs. Magda said that the estimated savings amount to 12 billion US dollars, a decrease of 8.5% compared to the previous year.
According to her, oil forecast scenarios indicate that 2026 will be a “difficult year.”
– The year 2026 will be a difficult year according to the scenarios. There are those who say that the price of oil may reach $55 next year. Therefore, every quarter we will analyze US$10 billion worth of financing in projects that will have to compete for space depending on the exchange rate, the price of Brent crude and the impact of these factors on the company’s financing.
In its plan, Petrobras expects the price of oil to reach $63 per barrel next year, and from 2027 to 2030, it expects the price of oil to reach $70 per barrel. She stressed that the goal is to have a profitable company:
– We want a profitable Petrobras company, which generates value for society. She said: We do not want a company in debt and we are committed to maintaining the financial health of the company, stressing maintaining the level of debt and dividends.
“Prioritize projects,” Magda says.
In the field of exploration and production, Petrobras will invest US$7.1 billion between 2026 and 2030, which is less than the US$7.9 billion expected in the previous plan. Over the next few years, 49 new wells are scheduled to be drilled, down from the 51 previously planned. The largest decline is occurring in the Campo Sol and Espírito Santo basins, where the total number of wells scheduled to be drilled has decreased from 25 to 14. Moreover, the Equatorial Margin continues to have 15 new wells, while the other areas are adding 11 wells.
– At this time, with low oil prices and the need for fiscal responsibility, we began to prioritize projects. We do not dispose of projects, but rather adapt the portfolio to current needs. We analyze what generates value for the company, both immediately and over the long term, and postpone initiatives without hurting cash. Some exploratory wells are considered essential, such as those at Amapa, which have greater potential and value. Other projects involve greater risks, such as new border areas.
According to Magda, some of the wells planned for the Equatorial Margin basins fall within the $10 billion portfolio of projects that will depend on the Brent and dollar prices.
-We have a large portfolio of planned margin wells. Some were prioritized and others were downgraded because of Brent, he said.