The Argentine economy is progressing towards a phase where inflation begins to moderate more consistently, even with the usual seasonal movements at the end of the year and some sectoral dispersion. Our base case predicts a Systematic shrinkage processWith typical calendar fluctuations, the trajectory – if it persists – could converge towards single-digit rates towards the second quarter of 2026. This potential scenario opens a different framework for both macroeconomic reading and business planning.
In this process, interest rates continue to play a major role. The current approach of keeping these currencies at positive real levels is aimed at maintaining confidence in peso instruments and discouraging the channeling of excess liquidity into the exchange market. It does not imply the expectation of a rigid forward position, but it does imply the recognition that, with the information available, Monetary policy seeks to maintain stability in a period in which there are still mixed signals.
The market has already incorporated this dynamic: CER returns, which reached unusually high levels in October, have returned to more consistent values. Something similar happens with fixed-rate bonds, whose returns are in line with inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026. It does not eliminate fluctuations, but it provides more stable references Even a few months ago it was difficult to find.
This financial reorganization does not go unnoticed by companies. After a period in which planning was urgent and costs difficult to predict, the possibility of operating at more reasonable rates and expectations allows us to restore a broader decision-making horizon. Working capital management, new investment evaluation, and financing strategies are beginning to be based on clearer and more consistent foundations Less conditioned by uncertainty.
Although bank credit is still limited, financing through the capital market is beginning to take center stage. Businesses find greater predictability using instruments such as cheques, promissory notes, and local negotiable obligations. The SME sector finds an environment in which comparing alternatives is more feasible and less risky than in previous stages.
Corporate issuance has also seen a notable boost, particularly in the energy sector: in the first two weeks of November, nearly $3 billion in negotiable commitments were made, equivalent to everything issued in 2022 and 2023 combined. The previous cap, reached in October 2024 at US$2.6 billion, was quickly surpassed.
What increases this dynamic is the return of sub-sovereign financing. Last week, the city of Buenos Aires released US$600 million over seven years, at 8.125% TNA, reopening a channel that had remained practically closed in recent years. With these operations, the month will conclude with international and regional corporate investments of more than US$4,000 million, an absolute record for the Miley era (in January 2025, driven by money laundering, US$1,500 million were issued).
In short, the combination of slowly subsiding inflation and positive real rates that accompany this process constitutes a transition period full of challenges, but also full of opportunities. This is not a complete change cycle yet, but it is a moment when companies can think about planning, financing and investing with more clarity..
Looking to 2026, The challenge will be to maintain this balance: Strengthening the fight against inflation without slowing down the recovery of activity, maintaining positive real interest rates without affecting productive credit, and strengthening demand for the peso in a country that still operates with a dual monetary logic. Along this path, economic policy definitions and business decisions will be crucial for this transformation to become a real turning point for the Argentine economy.
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