The beginning of the week left an unusual picture for the end of November: the Ibex 35 index was strongly moving away from the technical support that many managers consider their “waterline”, according to official data from the Spanish supervisor. With more than 15,500 points as a psychological reference – a number that has been stable since the middle of the month – the Spanish index advanced by about 1%, in parallel with European markets that began to price in the possibility of reaching a peace agreement in Eastern Europe.
The explanation of the movement is only found on screens. They recall from Renta 4 that it was the US proposal of 28 points for a truce between Russia and Ukraine that set the pace for the past few days. Various sources indicate that the November 27 deadline could be extended, after the European Union requested more time to evaluate the conditions. A recurring comment among managers in the hallway: “The market smells of something.” But no one has yet determined the true impact.
The Ibex 35 level will decide whether the Christmas rally will continue
| factor | He deserves | date | fountain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibex 35 main support | 15,500-15,470 piasters | 11/25/2025 | Madrid Stock Exchange |
The data focusing attention today is clear: as long as the index remains above the 15,500-15,470 range, the rally that began in April from 11,580 points remains technically valid. “Losing that area would mean more than a simple setback: it would confirm that the movement generated in the spring has reached its peak,” warns market strategist Joan Cabrero. It is a reference that, even just a couple of sessions ago, many operators were watching in amazement.
The analysis is explained by the usual November nuance: the correction, if well managed, should allow portfolios to be realigned in proportion to the traditional Christmas gathering. They recall from Bankinter that the recent decline played a healthy role, preventing excesses that were later more costly to correct. As an internal memo dated November 22 put it: “Timely adjustment avoids subsequent imbalances and stabilizes the rhythm over the long term.”
The “10% rule”: Why are so many managers still not buying?
- Analysts recommend waiting for 10% rebounds from the highs before making new purchases.
- For the Ibex 35, this would put the real chances at 14,700-14,800 points.
- These levels coincide with the September lows and areas of strong volume.
“Below 14,800 points, reasonable seeding in Spanish stocks starts again,” insists Cabrero. In this range, the index will fall enough to comply with the technical regime that many institutional managers have implemented since the pandemic: not adding risk without a minimum 10% decline.
The recommendation may seem far-fetched to the small investor doing calculations in line at the cashier – yes, that moment when the screen shows the balance and you wonder whether you should enter now or wait – but it has a clear logic: buying at too high a price hinders future profitability. It’s not about getting the minimum right, it’s about not rushing the movement.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: other levels that Europe views with suspicion
| index | Critical level | Current distance | fountain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 | 6,430 points (Fibo 23.6%) | 1.5%-2% | Kabwe |
| Nasdaq 100 | 23,900 points (Fibo 23.6%) | 1.5%-2% | Continuing medical education |
On the other side of the Atlantic, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are moving near levels that separate a slight respite from a trend change. The 23.6% Fibonacci level – the classic level for measuring healthy retracements – acts as a psychological limit. As long as the S&P’s score of 6,430 and the Nasdaq’s 23,900 do not decline, the volatility should not be interpreted as a sign of defeat.
Trading desks in London and Frankfurt, according to sources consulted on November 24, monitor these levels more than European levels. “If Wall Street breaks support levels, it will not take 48 hours for Europe to follow,” noted one German stock operator. Nothing new, but relevant for the latter part of the year.
Volatility is contained…for now
- Major indices maintain volatility below their annual average.
- Liquidity in the market remains high, according to the latest data from the Spanish Central Bank.
- The VIX is still 12% below its five-year average.
However, the stability data coexists with a general feeling that something may be moving soon. Eurostat’s October report put European household savings at 16.3%, a high figure for a moderate-rate environment. The market interprets that there is ammunition to support consumption, but also that an unexpected shift can lead to rapid sales.
Brent Oil: Why does the truce outweigh the sanctions?
The European crude oil benchmark, Brent barrels, has seen six down weeks in eight and saw its biggest decline since the beginning of October. The explanation lies not in the usual flows of supply and demand, but in expectations that the agreement between Russia and Ukraine might lead to the release of some constrained supply.
“If the deal goes ahead, the global oversupply will worsen once some sanctions are lifted,” Robert Rennie, a strategist at Westpac Bank, warned in a commentary on November 23. His analysis coincides with signals collected by European operators, who have been interpreting Brent’s oscillations for several days as a preview of the new geopolitical balance.
The market even downplayed new US measures on Russian crude oil introduced last week. Neither the pressures on Lukoil nor the sanctions imposed on Rosneft succeeded in changing the downward trajectory of the price. Felicity Jukes, director of TwentyFour, summed it up this way: “Oil is a thermometer: it says a lot about CPI, PPI and aggregate demand. It now points to stability or even decline until 2026.”
What do you expect at the end of the year?
- If the Ibex 35 maintains 15,500 points, the rally will remain intact.
- If it drops to 14,800, the 10% rule and buy interest will be triggered.
- Oil will remain the most sensitive geopolitical indicator.
As November enters its final phase, the market begins to gauge scenarios. No one is talking about euphoria. Rather, they are talking about greater awakening from three references: the support of the Ibex, the American Fibonacci and Brent. Three numbers, without promising anything, will set the tone for the end of the year as retail investors look at the ATM screen again hoping for something more than just balance: a clear sign.