Spanish parquet rose strongly this cycleDriven by periodic reassessment of values and expectations about changes in international monetary policy. The combination of favorable macroeconomic news, along with some moderate profit taking, generated a relatively upbeat day. The IBEX 35 rise was accompanied by notable volume, indicating real action, not just noise. Beyond the headline, it’s worth looking at the details: sectors, core values, and global context.
But behind this recovery there are several hidden questions: persistent inflation, tension in interest rate markets, and the prices of some stocks that already rule out optimistic scenarios. How far can the rise reach without a technical correction? What should investors and individuals pay attention to? The keys are in the following analysis.
Context and recent numbers
| factor | Value/movement | date | Source/commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBEX 35 Revaluation (2024) | +13.8% | 2024 final | Bank of Spain Annual Report – Fiscal Year 2024 |
| Home 2025 – Correction in global stocks | A moderate general decline in European and American indices | First semester 2025 | Same report |
| IBEX 35 configuration | 35 highly liquid securities listed on the Madrid Stock Exchange | present | According to the official definition of the indicator |
What led to the rise of IBEX?
- Optimism about the possibility of a change in global monetary policy. In the international context, some investors are betting on softer releases of interest rates, which usually favor stocks. Those tailwinds reach Madrid.
- Sector Rotation: Those who bet on securities with less exposure to economic cycles seized the opportunity to book profits, while cyclical sectors – energy, industrials and basic consumption – showed their strength. This recombination is fueling rallies, but it is also fueling volatility.
- Moderate risk appetite: After tense weeks, many portfolios have recalibrated, selling more conservative positions and opening the way to stocks with potential for revaluation. This, coupled with the good liquidity climate, was enough to move the needle.
What to look at with a magnifying glass from now on
- Evaluation of listed companies: In fact, many of these scenarios already rule out optimistic scenarios – moderate economic growth, cheap energy, and macro stability – leaving little room. Disappointment in results or interest rate hikes may take their toll.
- Persistent inflation risk: If prices refuse to moderate, central banks could extend higher interest rates. This would penalize debt-sensitive securities and reduce the attractiveness of defensive sectors. It is not advisable to forget it.
- Global fluctuations: With geopolitical uncertainty always looming and international markets tense, any shock to Wall Street or US interest rates could be transmitted to Spain.
What could happen in the coming weeks
If macro indicators continue to decline, the current recovery could consolidate and attract investors who have been waiting for a more attractive entry point. But if dark clouds appear – inflation, slowdown, international crisis – the fall will be rapid. That is: this rise may be a prelude to stability… or a “trap rise.”
For individuals and modest investors, the appropriate strategy will depend on the horizon: in the short term, it is advisable to monitor securities with good liquidity; In the medium term, you should diversify – not concentrate exposure – and include less correlated assets, for example debt or hybrid funds. The latest Regulatory Law No. 6/2023 issued on March 17 on securities markets and investment services strengthens transparency requirements and information obligations, improving the protection of small investors.
In any case, it is advisable to act decisively: avoid rash decisions after a “green start” in the market. Like someone looking at the smoke before lighting a home grill: There may be heat, but there’s also the danger of embers.