Dynamics of the unthinkable, model 2025

Racing beat River, the two top teams remaining with Boca in the quarter-finals of the tournament. Once again the big teams don’t arrive. San Lorenzo was eliminated by a very questionable refereeing, and Independiente plays in the minor leagues. But it was not the medium-sized teams that were supposed to play well, which in some cases took first place in the annual table, such as Rosario Central (I leave aside the nickname they gave it, a lot has already been written about this topic). The other is Velez: a typical Melizo team, playing beautifully but light. Of those who are playing well, only Argentinos Juniors remains, which was eliminated along with Boca, and one or the other is excluded, both today, from the favourites. This “dynamic of the unthinkable,” as Dante Panzeri once wrote, I mean the unthinkable for teams that have reached the quarterfinals (gymnastics!) has become the norm. The rule seems to be that there is no rule, and anyone beats anyone. And just as Platense won the previous tournament, why don’t we think that Central Cordoba will win it now, given that they won the Copa Argentina in 2024. Or why don’t we think that Estudiantes (who didn’t play at all during the regular tournament) and Gimnasia (who played worse) will get through the quarter-finals and play the semi-finals between them, as would happen if they both qualified. Anything can happen, which is both exciting and disappointing at the same time.

Meanwhile, we can now draw some conclusions about three of the most important ones.

A) If Boca puts its stamp on Paredes (as Talleres and others did), the team’s level will inevitably decline. Paredes himself (who has been reprimanded again, following a suspension date for excessive yellow cards) finds it difficult to find his place on the pitch when a player is placed on top of him. In the second half against Talleres, Palacios dropped lower to receive the ball, but being lazy and often unimportant directly, he failed to solve the problem. Boca has the advantage of winning matches it has lost before, or in other words, not playing better than when it played poorly and lost. The first half hour against Talleres was very bad, and if Marchesin doesn’t save the penalty, I don’t know what will happen.

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b) The river is a tear. The way Racing advanced after 2-2 is typical of a team without spirit, a beaten team. Since Racing’s draw, the only thing River wanted was to hold on, perhaps even on penalties, to get a deserved defeat (or a win on an Armani-inspired night). A river like this has rarely been seen.

c) Racing, on the contrary, is a team of passion. It’s chaotic and full of tactical errors, but it finds its identity in emotion. Just as you can’t see Gallardo’s hand at River, you can see Costas’ entire approach in racing. They are a team with no compromises, no highlights, but that doesn’t stop them from putting on a show. In the Copa Libertadores and now in the championship, racing is an electric blueprint of emotions.

There are paracas, of course. Will he become a hero? Small bets are accepted.