History repeats itself: the wheat harvest season is approaching and prices are collapsing. As in previous campaigns, the price has fallen in the 2024/25 cycle from US$212/t at the beginning of April to US$179/t shown at the start of the week of the January deal.
The price segment is not volatile: “Supply is abundant due to good harvests in northern hemisphere countries and is generating comfortable fundamentals, with significant volumes for export,” warns Sebastian Olivero, head of commodities at StoneX.. At this time, winter plantings in the Northern Hemisphere are well underway and the market tends to trend sideways until April or May, when the wheat emerges from the snow; Only at that moment can fluctuations appear.
In short, the international market shows a heavy tone. In the country, the harvest is progressing in Cordoba and Santa Fe with excellent yields. Stock markets expect production between 24 and 24.5 million tons, but some private companies estimate between 25 and 26 million tons.. However, it will be necessary to evaluate crop productivity in central and southern Buenos Aires, as they can be affected by floods and late frosts.
With a harvest of this volume, between 15 and 16 million tons must be exported, a figure much higher than the 10-12 million tons in previous campaigns. “7 million tons could be directed to Brazil, but the rest must be put to compete with major exporters in distant destinations, such as the Middle East or Africa.. As a result, for Argentina, only lower FOB rates are expected to place cargo beyond internal consumption, which is only 8 million tons between milling, seed and other uses.
So far, foreign sales declarations worth 2.8 million tons have been recorded, which should increase quickly to ease pressure on the market. In the face of this panorama of abundance, Oliviero recommends those with financial needs for December or January to sell now since the cards have already been thrown, and a significant price recovery would be unthinkable in the short term.. Those who do not need immediate liquidity can choose to stockpile goods and wait until mid-2026, as nearby lanes are very low. These days, the January position is trading at $179/ton; March, at $185 per ton, and in July it rose to $192.