he The market shows a brutal change in liquiditythe result of lower reserve requirements, and Low market interest rate. the Mutual funds They may not have more than 10% of Guaranteeswhich would free up money to search for other investment alternatives, as is the case Fixed-term instruments or fixed income in pesos. The latter would help the state renew the upcoming maturity dates.
In December, we have to repay $13.2 billion in peso debt with private parties January: $15.8 billion, $12.4 billion in February, and $10.3 billion in March.. The ideal situation is to start rolling over debt with maturities greater than 120 days, so that the stock of maturities does not increase in the coming months.
Extending the terms would allow the national government to better design the yield curve Take the stress out of future renovations. We believe that The interest rate will continue to fallwhich would clearly rule out disinflation.
With the dollar and interest rates falling, all roads lead to the stock market
As of October 2025 The inflation rate reached 31.3% annuallywhile the rate reached The devaluation was 40.1% per yearThis leaves us with the result Dollar contraction 6.3%. We believe that inflation should decline in the future, therefore, The exchange rate development should be less than the inflation rateThis means that we see a bearish scenario for the dollar.
The wholesale dollar price is at $1,451.5 with a range cap around it $1,510. In November they laid Negotiable commitments out close 4.2 billion US dollars, Sometime in December, these dollars will enter the exchange market, not in full, but as a percentage of the total.
The influx of dollars would push the exchange rate down from its current levels. On the other hand, hyper-dollarization before the election will mean at some point we will have too many dollars in supply. December is a month when pesos are in high demand, with the Christmas bonus being paid, so the supply of dollars will boom.
With low interest rates and an unattractive dollar, All roads lead to bonds and stocks.
Where bonds and stocks to invest in December 2025
in case Sovereign bonds in dollarsWe find it very attractive AL41 bonus Because it is the longest in the series.
in case Peso bondsthe Boncap The pair is trading above technical value, so be careful when buying these bonds. Shorter peso bonds look better, with higher fixed interest rates than double bonds.
In the case of stocks we see a temporary stagnation Oil stocks such as Vista, Pampa and YPF. However, there are businesses related to energy and gas that are gaining great importance. the Banks They gave very bad credits, and Free market In this context, the company seems to benefit from achieving positive results in the third quarter of the year.
In conclusion, all paths lead to the country’s risks falling to levels below 500 points in December, with the help of the International Monetary Fund. The US Federal Reserve can lower the rate to levels of 3.50%/3.75% per annum.
in Stocks We are going into a very bull marketWhich will definitely leave us with good profits for the next 45 days.
Financial instruments in pesos look unattractive, however Many operators have taken a deposit of 18% per annum, They are allocated at rates higher than 30% per annum, with an interesting gap.
The dollar futures market is contracting with positions sold, and it appears that many positions have been cancelled, the question is what the future positions will be like, in relation to the expected ceiling of the range.
From our point of view, we assume, in the near future, many of these situations will be included in the band, This gives predictability to the strength of the dollar, and very important gains for hard currency in the capital market.