In the coming years, Brazilian coffee may start to taste a little different. The South American country is the world’s largest producer of Arabica, a mild variety of coffee beans. But as climate change makes growing these beans more difficult, some farmers are investing in robusta beans, which produce beans that are more bitter but can withstand higher temperatures and are more resistant to disease.
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Brazil’s traditional coffee-growing regions, which produce mostly Arabica, have been exposed to more severe and frequent droughts, as well as higher temperatures. Arabica remains the country’s largest coffee export, but Robusta production is now growing at a faster rate: more than 81% in the past 10 years, according to the USDA, which tracks global coffee production.
For Brazil, Robusta represents an opportunity to remain the world’s largest coffee supplier in the future, even as the effects of climate change worsen, says Fernando Maximiliano, director of coffee market intelligence at StoneX, a financial services firm.
He adds: It was not necessarily demand that led to the growth in robusta production. — In fact, climate problems and losses in the Arabica plant were the main factors that contributed to stimulating the growth of Robusta.
Over the past three years, Arabica coffee production in Brazil has grown at a rate of approximately 2% to 2.5% per year, while Robusta production has increased by approximately 4.8% per year. In this year’s growing season, Robusta had a nearly 22% increase, a record yield, according to StoneX. Analysts say this means that Robusta production is distinguished by its ability to better deal with adverse weather conditions, as well as its profitability.
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In warmer regions of Brazil, where Arabica cannot grow, coffee producers are finding ways to produce Robusta and mitigate the impact of high temperatures. Planting coffee trees under the shade of local trees and other species is one such technique.
“This way, it will still be productive, and it will be a little more humid, so it won’t decompose as easily,” says Jonatas Machado, commercial director of Café Apué, which produces Robusta coffee in agroforestry systems in the Amazon.
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Robusta has a higher concentration of caffeine and a more intense flavor than Arabica. But younger generations pay less attention to the type of coffee they consume or its level of roasting and tend to favor personal choices, adding elements such as milk, cream and syrup, which ultimately mask the flavor of the beans.
They don’t care as much about origin, sensory feedback, said Matthew Barry, global insights director for food, cooking and dining at market research consultancy Euromonitor International.
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If coffee prices continue to rise, consumers may also lean toward Robusta coffee, which costs less.
In Europe, the price difference between Robusta and Arabica is likely to be greater in the coming years. The new law will require certification on imported products to prove they do not originate from recently deforested or degraded areas, although the implementation date remains uncertain.
Instant coffee, which is mostly prepared using the Robusta variety, is exempt from these rules. This exception could increase demand for Robusta-based products, according to Rabobank.
The European Union is the largest consumer of instant coffee, accounting for nearly 50% of global revenue, according to consultancy Grand View Research.
Although Robusta tends to be cheaper than Arabica, its prices have reached record levels. These high prices and the fact that the yields of the varieties are almost twice that of Arabica have convinced a growing number of coffee producers in Brazil to invest in growing Robusta, said Alexandro Teixeira, a coffee researcher at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Foundation (Embrapa).
Robusta producers are also improving the quality of their beans. He added that this made the item more attractive to consumers and led to higher prices.