Petrobras ended November with shares falling in the last trading session of the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3), on Friday (28/11), the day after the announcement of the company’s strategic plan for the next five years, between 2026 and 2030.
At the end of the last market session of the month, Petrobras’ common shares, which grant voting rights at meetings, fell by 2.45% and were trading at R$33.38.
The state-owned company’s preferred shares, which offer priority in paying dividends, fell 1.88%, at R$31.79.
What explains the fall of Petrobras?
According to analysts at JP Morgan, one of the major banks in the United States, one of the areas of concern that arose after the release of Petrobras’ strategic plan for the next five years involves the forecast of the Brent oil price (a reference for the international market), which is considered overly optimistic in relation to average market estimates.
The company has considered a value of US$70 per barrel for most years of the cycle, which, according to analysts, may overestimate the macroeconomic environment.
“However, Petrobras presents clear sensitivities: with every US$10 per barrel decline in Brent crude oil, annual operating cash flow declines by approximately US$5 billion, which helps investors evaluate downside scenarios,” the JPMorgan report says.
Genial Investimentos follows the same line in its assessment of Petrobras’ plan, noting that the optimistic estimates also extend to the exchange rate. The broker also states that confirmation of the forecast depends on more positive Brent crude and exchange rate scenarios than what the market currently expects.
According to Bradesco BBI, the initial market reaction to Petrobras’ plan was more negative than expected because investors were concerned about higher expenses in the short term. This is the same observation made in an analysis by Manchester Investimentos.
“There is always a fear that Petrobras will end up investing too much. If you have a bigger investment than you can make in a low Brent scenario, and therefore you will take profits, there is no magic. The market was very much looking forward to this,” says Gabriel Motta de Souza, partner at Manchester Investments.
However, for him, “the plan was in line with what the market was expecting.” “A decline was expected due to the value of Brent crude,” Gabriel explains. “In the last strategic plan issued by the company, they considered the price of Brent crude to be close to US$83, and that was a different reality compared to today’s price. The company needed to make an adjustment.”
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Reducing investments
Petrobras expects investments worth US$109 billion over the next five years. The approved value is 1.8% less than what was submitted last year. The decline in Petrobras’ investments was already expected by the market, amid a scenario of lower oil prices.
The company said in a statement that $91 billion will be allocated to projects in the implementation portfolio and another $18 billion in the evaluation portfolio.
Among the initiatives aimed at reducing expenses are the reduction of costs on platforms without production, further optimization of air and sea logistics, well interventions and underwater inspections, as well as better use of return freight and postponement of routine services and non-priority custody services.
According to Petrobras’ plan, the company should invest US$19.4 billion next year, US$21 billion in 2027, US$20.5 billion in 2028, US$16.1 billion in 2029, and US$14.3 billion in 2030.
In 2026, cash investment is expected to reach US$16.9 billion, with a production of 2.5 million barrels per day. Production is expected to reach 2.7 million barrels equivalent in 2028, and remain at 2.6 million barrels equivalent in 2029 and 2030.
Focus Petrobras
According to Petrobras, the company’s focus remains on oil and gas, in a “dual flexibility” strategy, with low cost and low emissions, so that the company also advances, in parallel and gradually, the energy transition.
According to the Petrobras project, $78 billion will be allocated for exploration and production. Of this amount, US$69.2 billion is allocated to projects in the deployment portfolio targeted at exploration and production, 62% for pre-salt fields, 24% for post-salt fields, 10% for exploration, and 4% for other sectors, such as land, shallow water, offshore and decarbonisation projects.
Petrobras also expects US$20 billion for refining, transportation, marketing, petrochemicals and fertilizer initiatives. For gas and low-carbon energy, US$9 billion will be invested.
In a more challenging oil price environment, Petrobras also reduced bonuses to its shareholders for the period between 2026 and 2030.
Dividends
According to the company, normal profits will range between US$45 billion and US$50 billion. In the previous plan, the estimate was 55 billion US dollars.
Petrobras also stated that it no longer expected to pay an extraordinary dividend, which had until then been expected to reach US$10 billion.
Dividends are the portion of net profit that a company distributes to its shareholders.